AMERISAFE Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
AMERISAFE's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -11.1%, while the Insurance industry saw earnings growing at 14.6% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 0.6% per year. AMERISAFE's return on equity is 18.8%, and it has net margins of 14.3%.
Key information
-11.11%
Earnings growth rate
-10.69%
EPS growth rate
| Insurance Industry Growth | 8.02% |
| Revenue growth rate | -0.61% |
| Return on equity | 18.79% |
| Net Margin | 14.27% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 28
AMSF: Higher Accident Year Losses And Margin Pressure Will Constrain Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed AMERISAFE's price target to $31 from $36, citing updated assumptions for slower revenue growth, slightly lower profit margins, and a modestly reduced future P/E outlook after recent research following its Q4 earnings miss and higher accident year losses. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates highlight a more cautious tone around AMERISAFE, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets after the Q4 earnings miss and higher accident year losses.
Narrative Update • Apr 14
AMSF: Premium Trends And Rebased P/E Are Expected To Drive Future Repricing
Analysts have reduced their price targets on AMERISAFE by about $11 to around $39. They cite recent earnings results in which higher accident year losses and revised growth and profitability assumptions are partially offset by higher premium growth and a recalibrated future P/E outlook.Narrative Update • Mar 31
AMSF: Higher Accident Year Losses Will Limit Upside As Shares Appear Fairly Valued
Analysts have reset their price target on AMERISAFE to $36, a reduction of $9 from the prior $45 level, citing higher accident year losses partially offset by stronger premium growth and a view that the shares are now fairly valued. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are recalibrating expectations on AMERISAFE after the recent Q4 earnings miss, with a reset price target of $36 indicating a more cautious stance on the risk and reward tradeoff at current levels.Narrative Update • Mar 16
AMSF: Higher Accident Year Losses Will Cap Upside Despite Ongoing Capital Returns
Analysts cut their price target on AMERISAFE to $36 from $45, citing recent Q4 earnings with higher accident year losses, partly offset by stronger premium growth, and a view that the shares now look fairly valued at this level. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are signaling a more cautious stance on AMERISAFE after the recent Q4 earnings miss, pointing to a mix of operational and valuation concerns that they believe limit upside at current levels.
Narrative Update • Mar 02
AMSF: Premium Stability And Dividend Increases Will Support Future Share Returns
Narrative update on AMERISAFE The analyst price target for AMERISAFE has been revised from $60 to $50, reflecting analysts' lower external targets, including recent cuts from firms citing Q4 earnings pressure and higher accident year losses, partially balanced by premium growth. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary on AMERISAFE has centered on the Q4 earnings miss and higher accident year losses, with analysts adjusting price targets to reflect a more cautious near term view on profitability.Narrative Update • Feb 16
AMSF: Updated Revenue And P/E Assumptions Will Support Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for AMERISAFE from $47.67 to $50.00, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the revised US$50.00 fair value estimate as consistent with their updated assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins, suggesting the business model still supports a premium to prior internal estimates.Narrative Update • Feb 02
AMSF: Higher Fair Value Will Offset Margin Concerns And Support Multiple
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for AMERISAFE to $45.00 from $43.00, citing updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions following recent Street research, including the latest price target revision. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have taken a more cautious stance on AMERISAFE, reflected in at least one price target reduction that pulled the target down by $5.00.Narrative Update • Jan 19
AMSF: Stable Earnings And Capital Returns Will Support Future Repricing
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on AMERISAFE by about $1.67 to reflect slightly lower fair value estimates and a modestly reduced future P/E assumption, while still expecting generally stable profitability. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on AMERISAFE center on trimmed price targets and a valuation reset that analysts link to broader pressure across the property and casualty space, rather than to a major shift in the company’s underlying profitability outlook.Narrative Update • Jan 05
AMSF: Lighter Catastrophe Activity And Book Value Trends Will Support Shares
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for AMERISAFE to $60 from $65, tying the lower target to higher assumed discount rates, slightly softer profit margin expectations, and updated industry views on pricing and valuations in the P&C space. Analyst Commentary Recent research on AMERISAFE points to a more cautious stance on valuation across the P&C insurance space, even as expectations for generally stable profitability remain in place.Narrative Update • Dec 14
AMSF: Sector Pressures Will Keep Multiple Constrained Despite Stable Profitability
Analysts have trimmed their price target on AMERISAFE to about $45 from roughly $50, reflecting pressure on broader P and C insurance valuations, even as they expect generally stable profitability and modest earnings tailwinds from a benign catastrophe loss environment. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts see the latest price target cuts as a signal that AMERISAFE's valuation has less room for multiple expansion in the near term, even as fundamentals remain relatively stable.Analysis Article • Dec 06
AMERISAFE, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AMSF) Prospects Need A Boost To Lift Shares
AMERISAFE, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:AMSF ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.1x might make it look like a buy right now...Narrative Update • Nov 30
AMSF: Stable Profitability Will Persist Despite Sector Headwinds And CFO Transition
Analysts have revised AMERISAFE's price target downward, with the consensus fair value decreasing by about $1 to $49.33. They cite ongoing valuation pressures and a stable but modest financial outlook for the insurance sector.Narrative Update • Nov 16
AMSF: Profitability Will Remain Resilient Despite Industry Valuation Headwinds
Analysts have lowered their average price target for AMERISAFE, citing industry-wide valuation pressures and expectations for stable profitability. Recent targets have been reduced by $5 to $20 compared to previous estimates.Narrative Update • Nov 01
AMSF: Financial Tailwinds And Reduced Catastrophe Losses Will Support Share Performance
AMERISAFE's analyst price target has been revised downward by approximately $1.67 to $50.33. Analysts cite ongoing concerns about casualty loss reserves and a cautious pricing environment, despite modest financial tailwinds.Narrative Update • Oct 16
Technology Investments Will Improve Underwriting Even As Pricing Pressures Mount
Analysts have lowered their price target for AMERISAFE from $54.33 to $52.00, citing a modestly improved profit margin. However, there is ongoing sector-wide caution regarding casualty loss reserves and pricing conditions.Analysis Article • Mar 02
AMERISAFE (NASDAQ:AMSF) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.39
AMERISAFE, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMSF ) will pay a dividend of $0.39 on the 21st of March. This makes the dividend yield 8.9...Seeking Alpha • Nov 20
Amerisafe Has A Premium Worth Paying
Summary Amerisafe's core profits have declined since 2019, but the company generates more profit per dollar invested, increasing its long-term corporate value. Specializing in workers' compensation insurance for hazardous industries, AMSF maintains high client satisfaction with a 94.1% policy renewal rate and a low expense ratio. Despite a drop in NOPAT, Amerisafe's ROIC has improved, indicating better balance sheet efficiency and potential for future profit growth. Trading at a modest premium, Amerisafe's rising ROIC justifies investment, with market expectations of NOPAT growth at no more than 17%. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Sep 24
Rising Premiums And Customer Loyalty Meet Analysts' Gloomy Earnings Forecast And Shrinking Margins
Enhanced agent engagement and strategic underwriting practices are improving profitability and financial stability.Analysis Article • Aug 30
AMERISAFE's (NASDAQ:AMSF) Dividend Will Be $0.37
The board of AMERISAFE, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMSF ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.37 per share on the 20th...Analysis Article • Apr 28
AMERISAFE (NASDAQ:AMSF) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.37
AMERISAFE, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMSF ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.37 per share on the 21st of June. This...Analysis Article • Feb 28
AMERISAFE (NASDAQ:AMSF) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.37
The board of AMERISAFE, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMSF ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 22nd of March, with...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How AMERISAFE makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 325 | 46 | 33 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 317 | 47 | 34 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 310 | 50 | 33 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 306 | 50 | 33 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 301 | 47 | 33 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 309 | 55 | 32 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 315 | 61 | 30 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 309 | 57 | 30 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 309 | 62 | 29 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 307 | 62 | 28 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 307 | 64 | 27 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 305 | 65 | 27 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 298 | 56 | 27 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 295 | 56 | 27 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 293 | 38 | 26 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 295 | 46 | 25 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 308 | 64 | 26 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 316 | 66 | 26 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 326 | 91 | 26 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 336 | 95 | 27 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 344 | 95 | 28 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 340 | 87 | 28 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 343 | 92 | 30 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 352 | 90 | 29 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 354 | 84 | 28 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 370 | 93 | 28 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 373 | 77 | 27 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 375 | 76 | 27 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 379 | 75 | 27 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 378 | 72 | 26 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 378 | 53 | 26 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 377 | 50 | 26 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 372 | 49 | 26 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 375 | 46 | 26 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 379 | 65 | 26 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 384 | 66 | 26 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 392 | 67 | 26 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 397 | 78 | 26 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 401 | 82 | 25 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 400 | 82 | 25 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 402 | 80 | 25 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 402 | 70 | 25 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 404 | 64 | 25 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 409 | 60 | 25 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: AMSF has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: AMSF's current net profit margins (14.3%) are lower than last year (15.8%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: AMSF's earnings have declined by 11.1% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: AMSF's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: AMSF had negative earnings growth (-2.4%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Insurance industry average (40.4%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: AMSF's Return on Equity (18.8%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 12:39 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
AMERISAFE, Inc. is covered by 10 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Randy Binner | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |
| Matthew Carletti | Citizens JMP Securities, LLC |
| Meyer Shields | Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods |