Estée Lauder Companies Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Estée Lauder Companies is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 35.4% and 3.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 36.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 35.6% in 3 years.
Key information
35.4%
Earnings growth rate
36.28%
EPS growth rate
| Personal Products earnings growth | 28.6% |
| Revenue growth rate | 3.4% |
| Future return on equity | 35.62% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 28 Jul 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Jun 30
Estee Lauder: Too Little, Too Late, Too Expensive
Summary Estée Lauder faces a real operational recovery, but its fundamentals and cash flow remain structurally impaired versus historical peaks. EL's dividend is unsustainable, likely requiring further cuts or suspension, with any reduction expected to trigger additional share price declines. Travel Retail, once EL's primary growth engine, has structurally contracted, removing a $3B revenue pillar unlikely to return this decade. EL's valuation assumes flawless recovery despite elevated leverage, thin free cash flow, failed acquisitions, and limited strategic flexibility—prompting a Sell rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 29
EL: Turnaround Progress And Higher Margins Will Still Pressure Shares
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Estée Lauder Companies from $74.37 to $70.00, reflecting updated views on a slightly higher discount rate, more moderate revenue growth assumptions, a higher projected profit margin, and a lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News for Estée Lauder Companies Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings for Estée Lauder Companies surpassed expectations, with earnings per share reported 40% above forecasts and revenue supported by double digit fragrance sales growth, according to recent results coverage.Analysis Article • Jun 20
Estée Lauder Companies (EL) Stock Could Be 28.5% Undervalued After Scent Scanner Launch
Estée Lauder Companies (EL) has drawn fresh attention after launching Scent Scanner with Jo Malone London on Pinterest, an AI-based fragrance tool, alongside expanding UK candle and home fragrance manufacturing capabilities. See our latest analysis for Estée Lauder Companies. Despite the AI Scent Scanner launch and expanded UK home fragrance capacity, Estée Lauder Companies' 1-month share price return of 7.48% sits against a year to date share price decline of 20.56%, while the 1-year total...
Narrative Update • Jun 15
EL: Turnaround Progress And Restructuring Charges Will Frame Future Standalone Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Estée Lauder Companies slightly to $95.12 from $95.43. This reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and a modestly higher future P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Jun 01
EL: Stand Alone Path And Lower Guidance Will Shape Future Upside
Analysts have raised their price target for Estée Lauder Companies slightly to $95.43 from $94.64, reflecting small adjustments to fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions in their models. What's in the News Estée Lauder ended merger talks with Spanish beauty group Puig over a potential combination that would have created a company valued at nearly US$40 billion, with the company reiterating confidence in remaining a stand-alone business.Narrative Update • May 13
EL: Potential Puig Combination Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Estée Lauder Companies from about $102.64 to $94.64, citing updated assumptions that combine slightly adjusted revenue growth and discount rate inputs with a higher projected profit margin and a lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News New fourth quarter 2026 guidance indicates an expected unfavorable impact of about 2% to sales growth and a dilutive impact of US$0.06 to diluted EPS, which directly feeds into earnings expectations for the near term (company guidance).
Narrative Update • Apr 28
EL: Potential Puig Combination And AI Fragrance Personalization Will Support Earnings Recovery
Analysts now set their price target for Estée Lauder Companies at $125, down from $130, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. What's in the News Estée Lauder confirmed it is in talks with Spanish beauty group Puig Brands for a potential business combination that could create a company valued at more than US$40b.Narrative Update • Apr 13
EL: Potential Puig Combination Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have nudged their price target for Estée Lauder Companies down by about $3, reflecting slightly adjusted assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Estée Lauder and Spanish beauty group Puig confirmed they are in discussions about a potential business combination that could create a company valued at more than $40b, with no final decision or agreement in place yet (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 30
EL: Potential Puig Deal And New Fragrance Launch Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Estée Lauder Companies to around $106, reflecting slightly softer revenue growth assumptions, a marginally higher discount rate and a somewhat lower future P/E multiple, partly balanced by modestly stronger profit margin expectations. What's in the News Estée Lauder and Spanish beauty group Puig confirmed on March 23, 2026 that they are in discussions over a potential business combination that could create a company valued at more than US$40b, with no final agreement in place and no assurance that a transaction will occur (company statements, FT report).Narrative Update • Mar 16
EL: Luxury Fragrance Rollout Will Support Stronger Future Earnings Profile
Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Estée Lauder Companies to $109.70 from $104.30, reflecting updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E, which together point to a slightly higher fair value estimate. What's in the News Balmain Beauty, part of Estée Lauder Companies, launched Destin de Balmain, a prestige refillable fragrance positioned as a bold floral fruity eau de parfum with strawberry, peony, lily, sandalwood and patchouli notes, offered in travel spray and multiple bottle sizes up to 150 ml (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 02
EL: Lower Margin Outlook And Guidance Will Pressure Shares
Analysts have slightly increased their fair value estimate for Estée Lauder Companies from about $73.73 to around $74.37, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What's in the News Balmain Beauty, part of Estée Lauder Companies, introduced Destin de Balmain, a refillable prestige fragrance described as a bold, floral fruity eau de parfum available globally in multiple bottle sizes including 10 ml travel spray and 30 ml, 50 ml, 100 ml, and 150 ml bottles (company announcement).Narrative Update • Feb 16
EL: AI Fragrance Personalization Will Support Long Term Earnings Recovery
Analysts have lifted their price target on Estée Lauder Companies to $130, reflecting updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News The Estée Lauder Companies issued earnings guidance for the year ending June 30, 2026, with expected reported sales growth of 3% to 5% and reported EPS between $0.98 and $1.22 (Company guidance).Narrative Update • Feb 02
EL: Equity Offering And Future Lockup Expiry Will Pressure Shares
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target on Estée Lauder Companies to reflect lower fair value and P/E expectations, while still basing their view on updated assumptions for modest revenue growth and profit margins. What's in the News Estée Lauder and Jo Malone London launched the Jo Malone London Scent Advisor, an AI powered digital tool using Google's Gemini and Vertex AI to provide personalized fragrance recommendations online, aiming to replicate the brand's in store consultation experience.Narrative Update • Jan 18
EL: Future Equity Overhang From Lockups Will Likely Pressure Shares
Analysts have raised their price target on Estée Lauder Companies to about US$74 from roughly US$65, citing updated assumptions that include a lower discount rate, higher projected revenue, a modestly higher profit margin and a slightly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Estée Lauder Companies and Jo Malone London launched the Jo Malone London Scent Advisor, an AI-powered digital tool that uses Google's Gemini and Vertex AI to recommend fragrances online through a conversational experience for US and UK customers on JoMalone.com (Product-Related Announcements).Narrative Update • Jan 04
EL: Digital Commerce And Fragrance Expansion Will Support Balanced Future Performance
Analysts have nudged their price target for Estée Lauder Companies slightly higher to about $104 per share from roughly $103.90, citing marginally improved revenue growth expectations and a lower discount rate. These factors more than offset a modest trim to long term profit margin assumptions and a slightly richer projected future P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Dec 20
EL: Digital Commerce And Luxury Fragrance Initiatives Will Support Balanced Future Performance
Narrative Update on Estée Lauder Companies Analysts have nudged their price target for Estée Lauder Companies slightly higher, to approximately 104 dollars from about 102 dollars. They cite modestly stronger long term revenue growth expectations and a marginally lower discount rate, which together support a higher justified valuation multiple.Analysis Article • Dec 19
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) Stock Rockets 26% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. ( NYSE:EL ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 26% share price jump...Narrative Update • Dec 06
EL: Digital Expansion And Luxury Fragrance Initiatives Will Support Balanced Future Performance
Analysts have nudged their price target on Estée Lauder Companies slightly higher to approximately $102.17 per share from about $101.87, citing a modestly lower discount rate and slightly stronger long term revenue growth expectations, which more than offset a marginal trim to projected profit margins. What's in the News Launched the Jo Malone London AI Scent Advisor, using Google's Gemini and Vertex AI to deliver personalized online fragrance recommendations and extend the brand's in store style consultation into digital channels (company announcement).Narrative Update • Nov 22
EL: Digital Partnership and Luxury Expansion Will Drive Upside For Shares
Narrative Update on Estée Lauder Companies Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Estée Lauder Companies at approximately $101.87 per share, with only marginal adjustments to discount rate and expected profit metrics. This reflects steady business outlooks and minimal impact on valuation assessments.Narrative Update • Nov 08
EL: Future Earnings May Rise as Digital Expansion Accelerates
Analysts have raised their price target for Estée Lauder Companies from $95.09 to $101.87. They cite expectations for stronger revenue growth and improved profit margins supported by updated forecasts.Analysis Article • Nov 05
Estée Lauder Companies (NYSE:EL) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.35
The board of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. ( NYSE:EL ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.35 per share...Narrative Update • Oct 25
Luxury Expansion And Profit Margins Will Shape Long-Term Global Opportunities
Estée Lauder Companies’ analyst price target has been raised slightly from $93.26 to $95.09. Analysts cite modest improvements in projected profit margins and a lower discount rate as factors supporting a higher valuation.Narrative Update • Oct 10
Digital Channels And Emerging Markets Will Fuel Global Expansion
Estée Lauder Companies' analyst price target has been raised by analysts from $91.43 to $93.26. This reflects improved expectations for revenue growth and profitability.Analysis Article • Aug 22
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Price Targets
The yearly results for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. ( NYSE:EL ) were released last week, making it a good time to...Narrative Update • Aug 22
Digital Channels And Emerging Markets Will Fuel Global Expansion
The upward revision in Estée Lauder’s consensus price target reflects improved sentiment driven by higher expected revenue growth and a modest increase in net profit margin, resulting in the price target increasing from $85.10 to $89.39. What's in the News Affirmed FY26 sales growth guidance of 2% to 5% and GAAP EPS forecast of $1.63 to $1.87.Analysis Article • Aug 10
Estimating The Fair Value Of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL)
NYSE:EL 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Estée Lauder Companies's Fair Values from the Community and select...Seeking Alpha • Apr 15
Estee Lauder: Do Not Expect Beauty Reimagined To Turnaround The Company In The Short Term
Summary Estee Lauder's 85% drop from its 2022 high is not a buying opportunity due to ongoing financial deterioration and challenging macroeconomic conditions. Latest developments show a 6.45% y/y revenue decline and worsening margins, with further financial deterioration expected. The global trade war and weak consumer sentiment, especially in Asia Pacific and EMEA, will continue to negatively impact EL's performance. Despite launching Beauty Reimagined, EL's high valuation and potential for further dividend cuts make it a risky investment; better opportunities exist elsewhere. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30/2029 | 16,622 | 1,464 | 1,954 | N/A | 4 |
| 6/30/2028 | 16,189 | 1,357 | 1,578 | 2,386 | 19 |
| 6/30/2027 | 15,545 | 1,085 | 1,287 | 1,926 | 26 |
| 6/30/2026 | 14,968 | 373 | 799 | 1,363 | 20 |
| 3/31/2026 | 14,833 | -248 | 1,285 | 1,798 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 14,671 | -178 | 1,137 | 1,670 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 14,446 | -930 | 1,045 | 1,602 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 14,326 | -1,133 | 670 | 1,272 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 14,786 | -871 | 948 | 1,560 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 15,176 | -700 | 1,145 | 1,810 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 15,451 | 203 | 1,333 | 2,098 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 15,608 | 390 | 1,441 | 2,360 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 15,346 | 641 | -1,146 | 2,185 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 15,157 | 467 | -1,480 | 1,917 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 15,498 | 548 | -1,459 | 1,973 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 15,910 | 1,006 | -1,558 | 1,731 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 15,862 | 1,091 | 1,046 | 2,088 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 16,356 | 1,493 | 945 | 1,945 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 17,275 | 2,187 | 1,484 | 2,471 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 17,737 | 2,390 | 2,000 | 3,040 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 18,112 | 3,356 | 1,914 | 2,823 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 17,731 | 3,254 | 2,653 | 3,499 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 17,045 | 3,039 | 2,466 | 3,192 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 16,215 | 2,870 | 2,994 | 3,631 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 14,709 | 1,390 | 2,571 | 3,112 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 14,190 | 928 | 2,421 | 3,003 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 13,961 | 612 | 2,194 | 2,808 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 14,294 | 684 | 1,657 | 2,280 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 15,454 | 1,303 | 1,935 | 2,706 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 15,853 | 1,864 | N/A | 2,499 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 15,234 | 1,880 | N/A | 2,466 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 14,863 | 1,785 | N/A | 2,517 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 14,568 | 1,814 | N/A | 2,398 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 14,194 | 1,631 | N/A | 2,396 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 13,933 | 1,181 | N/A | 2,361 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 13,683 | 1,108 | N/A | 2,562 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 13,282 | 1,151 | N/A | 2,468 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 12,769 | 1,077 | N/A | 2,415 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 12,233 | 1,382 | N/A | 2,032 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 11,824 | 1,249 | N/A | 1,790 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 11,576 | 1,114 | N/A | 1,725 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 11,376 | 1,081 | N/A | 1,651 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 11,292 | 1,100 | N/A | 1,631 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 11,262 | 1,115 | N/A | 1,789 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 11,140 | 1,174 | N/A | 1,874 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 11,064 | 1,181 | N/A | 1,912 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 10,984 | 1,170 | N/A | 1,824 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: EL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: EL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: EL is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: EL's revenue (3.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.5% per year).
High Growth Revenue: EL's revenue (3.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: EL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (35.6%)
Discover growth companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/31 17:53 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/31 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/06/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is covered by 42 analysts. 26 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| John Staszak | Argus Research Company |
| Lauren Lieberman | Barclays |
| Fulvio Cazzol | Berenberg |