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ModivCare Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 0/6
ModivCare's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -62.7%, while the Healthcare industry saw earnings growing at 3.6% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 13% per year.
Key information
-62.70%
Earnings growth rate
-62.53%
EPS growth rate
| Healthcare Industry Growth | 8.50% |
| Revenue growth rate | 13.00% |
| Return on equity | n/a |
| Net Margin | -16.74% |
| Last Earnings Update | 30 Sep 2025 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Analysis Article • Jun 11
ModivCare Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MODV) CEO Might Not Expect Shareholders To Be So Generous This Year
Key Insights ModivCare to hold its Annual General Meeting on 17th of June Salary of US$792.9k is part of CEO L...
New Narrative • Apr 07
Tech-enabled Platforms And Fee-For-Service Will Transform Operations
Leveraging technology platforms and strategic divestitures aim to enhance revenue, optimize capital structure, and boost earnings.Seeking Alpha • Dec 02
ModivCare: A Complicated Tale
Summary ModivCare's stock has plummeted due to issues with Matrix Medical and delays in contract receivable collections, despite stable core business segments. Management's revised FY24 Adj. EBITDA guidance and recent covenant relief negotiations highlight financial instability, yet analysts remain cautiously optimistic. An updated analysis around ModivCare follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Aug 31
Investors Still Aren't Entirely Convinced By ModivCare Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MODV) Revenues Despite 26% Price Jump
ModivCare Inc. ( NASDAQ:MODV ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting...Analysis Article • Jul 11
Is ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) A Risky Investment?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...Analysis Article • Apr 04
ModivCare Inc. (NASDAQ:MODV) Looks Inexpensive After Falling 26% But Perhaps Not Attractive Enough
To the annoyance of some shareholders, ModivCare Inc. ( NASDAQ:MODV ) shares are down a considerable 26% in the last...Analysis Article • Feb 29
ModivCare Inc. (NASDAQ:MODV) Just Reported Earnings, And Analysts Cut Their Target Price
Shareholders in ModivCare Inc. ( NASDAQ:MODV ) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 37% to US$28.61 in the week since...Analysis Article • Feb 22
ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...Analysis Article • Jan 25
Sentiment Still Eluding ModivCare Inc. (NASDAQ:MODV)
You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x ModivCare Inc. ( NASDAQ:MODV ) is a stock worth...Analysis Article • Nov 08
Is ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Aug 03
Here's Why ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Analysis Article • Apr 17
Is ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • Feb 24
Is There An Opportunity With ModivCare Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MODV) 49% Undervaluation?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, ModivCare fair value estimate is US$206 ModivCare's US$104...Analysis Article • Oct 12
Does ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Seeking Alpha • Sep 02
ModivCare: ROIC And Continuing Value Are Narrowing - Rating It A Hold
Summary Here we took a hard-data approach to examine the investment and continuing value for ModivCare, Inc. We note the company displays a loose affinity to the kind of equity premia we are chasing exposure to. Return on investment and bottom-line earnings have tightened in recent periods for MODV – an unhealthy combo. We see that shares are overpriced even at 0.75x book value and demonstrate there's a lack of compelling value on offer. We rate MODV a hold on a $103 valuation. Investment summary An understanding of a company's value proposition is paramount in making the most informed investment decisions. It is our philosophy to separate measures of corporate value into two segments - investment and earnings - to gauge exactly what we're buying, what's on offer, and if it's worth the cost. Here we examined ModivCare Inc. (MODV) in this same light and found there to be a lack of compelling value on offer. AS FCF yields and return on investment have dwindled in recent periods, and forward-looking estimates narrowing as well, valuations are no longer supportive of the long-term buy thesis. We rate MODV a hold on a $103 valuation. Exhibit 1. MODV 6-month price action MODV has participated in the June relief rally but blown off the peal with a double-top that saw shares rejected at the c.$120-$122 mark. Data: Refinitiv Eikon Whilst revenues climb, FCF yield has dwindled Quarterly operating revenues have continued to bulk up since FY19 on a sequential basis, as seen in Exhibit 2. For instance, Q2 FY22 service revenue came in at $628 million ["mm'] for the year, a year-on-year growth schedule of 32%. The non-emergency medical transportation ("NEMT") segment gained 23% YoY and contributed $449mm to the top line. Growth was underscored by a more favourable revenue mix. This comprised a ~14% YoY gain in average monthly members, a ~500bps increase in revenue per trip and an 18% increase in trip volume. Meanwhile, personal care turnover was $163mm for the quarter and saw growth from $110 the year prior. Upside was driven by an additional ~$42.5mm in incremental revenue from the CareFinders acquisition. However, despite the upsides at the top-line, this hasn't carried through to the P&L on a GAAP or non-GAAP basis. We note that FCF margin has been thinning since FY20, after a large change in net working capital [discussed below] alongside operating margin. Hence, the spread between top/bottom line is widening for MODV, and this weakens the fundamental momentum looking ahead. Note, investors currently realize a 3.4% FCF yield, in-line with FY19 levels but at a FY22 market capitalization. Exhibit 2. Thinning FCF margins and yield since FY20 on a sequential basis Data: HB Insights, MODV SEC Filings Keep in mind that the narrowing FCF margin/conversion would be preferred if the return on investment comfortably beat the WACC hurdle, and, if there is adequate capital available. Firstly, short-term obligations are poorly covered from liquid assets and cash at just 0.7x cover. Moreover, cash & equivalents has also narrowed from $290mm-$88mm in the last quarter. There may, therefore, be some drain and pull on liquidity with these measures. As seen in Exhibit 3, MODV's trailing 12-month ("TTM") FCF yield [a measure of corporate and shareholder value] has closely tracked its return on investment ("ROIC") on a sequential basis since FY18. As such, both have been declining since FY20, and therefore profitability is a concern for the company with this data in mind. Exhibit 3. Data: HB Insights Explaining the jump in FY18-FY19, is 367% QoQ change in net working capital ("NWC") in Q3-Q4 FY20. This saw net working capital [including cash] jump from $141mm to $674mm in one reporting period. Note, that a positive change in NWC generally equates to less FCF, and this is reflected precisely in Exhibit 4. Note that, following the large spike in NWC, both ROIC and FCF immediately began to reverse course. As a result, FCF yields and ROIC have continued to narrow on a sequential basis in each period subsequent to this event. Nevertheless, the large change in MODV's net operating assets [short-term accruals] is a key factor that has altered the company's return on capital cycle. Exhibit 4. FCF yield and return on investment both narrowing since large change in NWC ack in FY20 at the start of the pandemic Data: HB insights, MODV SEC Filings As seen in Exhibit 5, return on investment is now back below pre-pandemic levels, however, we are paying well above pre-pandemic market capitalization [and enterprise value]. Meanwhile, as the level of invested capital has increased over time, net operating profit after tax ("NOPAT") has been bottom heavy and turned course, thus clamping the rate of investment return for MODV. Exhibit 5. ROIC print is back at FY19 actuals although we are paying FY22 market capitalization Data: HB Insights, MODV SEC Filings Valuation In order to extract a figure of true corporate value, we first must reconcile a few items on the income statement and balance sheet. Goodwill in particular is of note. It arises due to the acquisition method of accounting, that is highly subjective. For instance, in its 10-Q, regarding the acquisition of CareFinders, the company notes re the $236.7mm goodwill asset on the transaction as follows: "The acquisition preliminarily resulted in $232.2 million of goodwill as a result of expected synergies due to future customers driven by expansion into different markets, an increase in market share, and a growing demographic that will need home care solutions. All of the acquired goodwill is deductible for tax purposes." Hence we adjust for $1.44 Billion of goodwill on the balance sheet and arrive at an adjusted shareholder equity of $236.9mm, down from a reported $381.9mm. That's the investment pile of MODV's valuation sorted. For earnings, we had to reconcile ~$30mm in non-cash expenses and stock based compensation and see it print $68mm in operating income and $52mm in NOPAT [$3.71 per share]. This resulted in an adjusted net income of ~$51mm and adjusted earnings of $3.63 per share - up from $0.20 reported. As seen in Exhibit 6, the reconciliations help earnings performance drastically. Exhibit 6. Reconciliation of GAAP measures - note, shareholder equity includes all recognized intangibles. Data: HB Investments US Equity Fund On these figures shares trade at 1.2 enterprise value ("EV) to book value, and ~0.75x price to book. On first glance, this represents compelling value. But does it? When we adjust for the above, at these multiples, we'd be paying an exorbitant $201 per share, and $124 even at 0.74x book value. Moreover, investor ROE is unattractive with a payback period of 15-21 years from current levels of FCF. Question is, is it worth paying an implied $124-$201 for what's on offer earnings wise?Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How ModivCare makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 25 | 2,693 | -451 | 308 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 2,715 | -404 | 294 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 2,754 | -229 | 300 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 2,788 | -201 | 298 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 2,788 | -183 | 300 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 2,773 | -161 | 299 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 2,773 | -223 | 302 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 2,751 | -204 | 305 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 2,702 | -206 | 319 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 2,663 | -230 | 325 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 2,592 | -36 | 325 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 2,504 | -32 | 322 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 2,426 | -56 | 324 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 2,272 | -35 | 317 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 2,118 | -25 | 294 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 1,997 | -7 | 272 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 1,820 | 23 | 234 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 1,647 | 66 | 200 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 1,455 | 37 | 175 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 1,369 | 32 | 142 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 1,355 | 23 | 101 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 1,428 | -5 | 82 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 1,509 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 1,510 | -9 | 63 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 1,486 | -2 | 63 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 1,436 | 0 | 64 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 1,416 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 1,385 | 12 | 75 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 1,125 | 42 | 41 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 1,191 | 45 | 43 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 1,255 | 45 | 42 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 1,318 | 40 | 70 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 1,603 | -23 | 70 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 1,606 | -32 | 68 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 1,596 | -34 | 67 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 1,234 | 12 | 38 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 1,566 | -35 | 63 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 1,533 | -43 | 66 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 1,440 | -44 | 66 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 1,478 | -40 | 73 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 1,473 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 1,403 | 17 | 69 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 15 | 1,267 | 22 | 54 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: MODV.Q is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: MODV.Q is currently unprofitable.
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: MODV.Q is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 62.7% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare MODV.Q's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: MODV.Q is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Healthcare industry (19.6%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: MODV.Q's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2025/12/31 12:02 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2025/12/29 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/09/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2024/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
ModivCare Inc. is covered by 7 analysts. 0 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Robert Labick | CJS Securities, Inc. |
| Miles Highsmith | Deutsche Bank |
| Philip Chickering | Deutsche Bank |