Hologic, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOLX) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$80.53 Price Target

Last week, you might have seen that Hologic, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOLX) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.3% to US$65.45 in the past week. Hologic reported US$1.0b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.87 beat expectations, being 4.2% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Hologic

Following last week's earnings report, Hologic's 20 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$4.09b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 5.0% to US$3.46. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.45 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 5.1% to US$80.53, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Hologic analyst has a price target of US$95.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$70.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2025. Historically, Hologic's top line has shrunk approximately 0.5% annually over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Hologic is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Hologic's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Hologic's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Hologic analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Hologic's balance sheet, and whether we think Hologic is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.