Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATEC) Just Released Its Full-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Shareholders of Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATEC) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 18% to US$12.53 following its latest full-year results. Alphatec Holdings reported revenues of US$612m, in line with expectations, but it unfortunately also reported (statutory) losses of US$1.13 per share, which were slightly larger than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Alphatec Holdings after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Alphatec Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Alphatec Holdings from ten analysts is for revenues of US$732.3m in 2025. If met, it would imply a solid 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 37% to US$0.72. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$732.8m and losses of US$0.64 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Alphatec Holdings even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a noticeable increase in per-share losses.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$17.63, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Alphatec Holdings analyst has a price target of US$22.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$11.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Alphatec Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 20% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 33% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Alphatec Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Alphatec Holdings. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$17.63, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Alphatec Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Alphatec Holdings is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.