Astrana Health (ASTH) Is Down 28.1% After Revenue Soars but Profit Drops Sharply in Q3

• On November 6, 2025, Astrana Health reported third quarter results showing revenue more than doubled year-over-year to US$956.05 million, while net income fell to US$0.373 million from US$16.09 million; the company also updated its full-year revenue guidance to a range of US$3.10 billion to US$3.18 billion.
• Amid substantial revenue growth, the significant contraction in net income highlights ongoing profitability challenges for Astrana Health during a period of major business expansion.
• We’ll explore how Astrana’s sharp revenue growth, paired with much lower earnings, could shift its longer-term investment outlook.

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Astrana Health Investment Narrative Recap

For Astrana Health shareholders, the investment thesis centers on the company’s ability to convert rapid top-line expansion into sustained profitability, leveraging an expanding portfolio of value-based care contracts and potential synergies from recent acquisitions. The latest third-quarter results reinforce the biggest short-term catalyst, strong recurring revenue growth, while the sharp drop in net income underscores continued integration and margin execution risks, which remain the key headwinds for near-term investor confidence.

The company’s update to its full-year revenue guidance, now projected at US$3.10 billion to US$3.18 billion, is the announcement most relevant to the recent earnings. This guidance affirms expectations for continued top-line momentum, but the scale of recent profit compression makes it clear that management’s ability to balance growth and margin is under increasing scrutiny as Astrana works to realize acquisition synergies and streamline operations.

However, against a backdrop of revenue gains, it is the squeeze on net margins and the execution risk in integrating large acquisitions that investors should be mindful of…

Read the full narrative on Astrana Health (it's free!)

Astrana Health's narrative projects $4.5 billion revenue and $148.7 million earnings by 2028. This requires 23.3% yearly revenue growth and a $123.4 million earnings increase from $25.3 million today.

Uncover how Astrana Health's forecasts yield a $43.89 fair value, a 84% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Private investors in the Simply Wall St Community have placed Astrana Health’s fair value anywhere from US$43.89 to US$70.83 across three recent estimates. With earnings margins tightening as revenue accelerates, you may want to compare these views while considering the company’s ongoing profitability challenges.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Astrana Health - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Astrana Health Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Astrana Health research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Astrana Health research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Astrana Health's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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