A Fresh Look at Align Technology (ALGN) Valuation After Q3 Earnings and New Digital Innovations

Align Technology (ALGN) released its third quarter earnings, revealing slightly higher revenue compared to last year but a notable drop in net income and earnings per share. Investors are weighing these mixed results along with updated guidance and recent product innovations.

See our latest analysis for Align Technology.

It has been a turbulent stretch for Align Technology, with the stock’s year-to-date share price slipping more than 35%. Despite the recent unveiling of major product innovations and a substantial buyback completed last quarter, the one-year total shareholder return stands at negative 39%, highlighting persistent challenges and a market growing cautious on near-term growth. Longer-term returns also show investors have had a tough ride, but renewed product momentum and operational updates could eventually help restore confidence if execution matches expectations.

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The market’s harsh reaction has pushed shares to a steep discount. However, does this reflect just the current uncertainty, or is it an early signal that future growth will remain muted? Is there a genuine buying opportunity, or is the market already factoring in Align’s next chapter?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.3% Undervalued

Compared to the recent closing price of $134.84, the most widely tracked analyst narrative places Align Technology’s fair value at $180.50. With such a notable gap, the rationale behind this valuation puts the spotlight on what could drive a turnaround, even as the market remains skeptical.

Strategic investments in digital workflow and next-generation manufacturing (automation, regionalized production, modernization of facilities) are expected to drive operational efficiencies and cost reductions, supporting higher net margins and improved operating leverage in fiscal 2026 and beyond. The integration of advanced digital solutions, such as iTero Lumina scanners, AI-driven treatment planning, and piloting x-ray diagnostics integration, will enhance differentiation, support premium pricing, and improve patient treatment outcomes, ultimately benefiting both revenues and long-term earnings quality.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what assumptions support such a bold price target? The foundation of this narrative isn’t just about new tech. It hints at a future shaped by elevated margins, rapid revenue expansion, and decisive operational pivot points. Dig in to see exactly what underpins this valuation and what could change the game for Align.

Result: Fair Value of $180.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained macroeconomic uncertainty or further shifts toward lower-priced aligners could present challenges to expectations for margin growth and a strong revenue recovery.

Find out about the key risks to this Align Technology narrative.

Build Your Own Align Technology Narrative

If you want to dig deeper, challenge the consensus, or tell a different story with the numbers, you can do it yourself in just a few minutes, your way. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Align Technology.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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