Danone S.A.

OTCPK:GPDN.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$44.0b

Danone Valuation

Is GPDN.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GPDN.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GPDN.F ($68.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($101.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GPDN.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GPDN.F?

Key metric: As GPDN.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GPDN.F. This is calculated by dividing GPDN.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GPDN.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio41.5x
Earnings€1.00b
Market Cap€41.64b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GPDN.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GPDN.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.6x
HSY Hershey
19.9x2.7%US$35.2b
GIS General Mills
15.3x3.6%US$36.8b
KHC Kraft Heinz
28.2x28.4%US$38.6b
K Kellanova
27.1x9.0%US$28.0b
GPDN.F Danone
41.5x18.5%US$41.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GPDN.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.5x) compared to the peer average (22.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GPDN.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GCEH Global Clean Energy Holdings
0.4xn/aUS$49.55m
SEED Origin Agritech
2xn/aUS$16.25m
FAMI Farmmi
1.9xn/aUS$3.00m
IDBH.F Industrias Bachoco. de
0.0002xn/aUS$59.94k
GPDN.F 41.5xIndustry Avg. 19.9xNo. of Companies8PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GPDN.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.5x) compared to the US Food industry average (19.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GPDN.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GPDN.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio41.5x
Fair PE Ratio29.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GPDN.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GPDN.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$68.85
US$70.86
+2.9%
9.4%US$84.52US$58.11n/a22
Nov ’25US$71.60
US$72.05
+0.6%
8.5%US$81.12US$59.49n/a22
Oct ’25US$73.10
US$71.48
-2.2%
9.6%US$80.17US$61.24n/a22
Sep ’25US$68.73
US$69.90
+1.7%
9.2%US$78.67US$60.10n/a22
Aug ’25US$65.12
US$68.71
+5.5%
9.2%US$77.70US$59.35n/a22
Jul ’25US$62.42
US$67.92
+8.8%
9.3%US$77.13US$56.78n/a22
Jun ’25US$63.61
US$68.91
+8.3%
9.5%US$78.20US$57.56n/a22
May ’25US$60.33
US$67.34
+11.6%
10.2%US$76.69US$53.26n/a22
Apr ’25US$66.25
US$68.30
+3.1%
10.6%US$78.04US$54.19n/a22
Mar ’25US$63.38
US$67.81
+7.0%
11.1%US$78.02US$53.10n/a23
Feb ’25US$66.60
US$67.27
+1.0%
11.4%US$78.35US$53.32n/a23
Jan ’25US$64.66
US$65.18
+0.8%
12.6%US$77.02US$52.26n/a22
Dec ’24US$62.90
US$62.96
+0.09%
12.4%US$74.79US$50.75n/a22
Nov ’24US$59.99
US$62.36
+4.0%
12.2%US$73.97US$50.20US$71.6022
Oct ’24US$55.61
US$62.17
+11.8%
13.1%US$74.00US$45.46US$73.1022
Sep ’24US$57.60
US$64.47
+11.9%
13.3%US$77.21US$46.76US$68.7324
Aug ’24US$61.60
US$66.23
+7.5%
12.3%US$78.27US$47.40US$65.1223
Jul ’24US$60.76
US$66.02
+8.7%
12.4%US$76.74US$47.14US$62.4222
Jun ’24US$58.98
US$64.26
+9.0%
13.1%US$75.27US$46.24US$63.6122
May ’24US$65.94
US$65.23
-1.1%
13.1%US$77.16US$47.40US$60.3322
Apr ’24US$62.11
US$62.58
+0.8%
14.1%US$76.05US$46.71US$66.2522
Mar ’24US$56.66
US$60.37
+6.5%
13.9%US$74.06US$45.49US$63.3823
Feb ’24US$55.84
US$60.10
+7.6%
15.1%US$75.84US$44.42US$66.6022
Jan ’24US$52.99
US$60.48
+14.1%
14.3%US$74.25US$43.49US$64.6622
Dec ’23US$53.40
US$60.15
+12.6%
12.2%US$73.68US$43.16US$62.9023
Nov ’23US$48.95
US$56.68
+15.8%
12.4%US$69.16US$40.51US$59.9924

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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