David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Post Holdings
How Much Debt Does Post Holdings Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Post Holdings had US$6.42b of debt, up from US$5.86b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has US$337.0m in cash leading to net debt of about US$6.08b.
How Strong Is Post Holdings' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Post Holdings had liabilities of US$839.5m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$7.36b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$337.0m as well as receivables valued at US$564.7m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$7.30b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's US$6.25b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Post Holdings has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.9 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 2.8 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. The good news is that Post Holdings grew its EBIT a smooth 48% over the last twelve months. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Post Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Post Holdings produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 60% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
Post Holdings's net debt to EBITDA and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Post Holdings's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Post Holdings (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About NYSE:POST
Post Holdings
Operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally.
Undervalued with proven track record.
