Altria Group (MO): Evaluating Valuation After Earnings Lift Net Income but Forecast Slower EPS Growth

Altria Group (MO) just released its third-quarter earnings, highlighting a rise in net income and earnings per share, even as sales slipped slightly from last year. For investors, these updates carry meaningful implications ahead of year-end.

See our latest analysis for Altria Group.

Altria Group’s release of higher quarterly net income helped lift investor sentiment, but the recent guidance pointing to slower EPS growth has put a cap on momentum. While the 2025 year-to-date share price return stands at a solid 10.6%, highlighting some renewed optimism, the real story is in the long haul. Altria has delivered an impressive 113.8% total shareholder return over five years, making its recent dip look more like a pause than a pivot.

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With the stock trading at a notable discount to intrinsic value but future earnings growth expected to slow, is Altria currently undervalued? Or is the market already pricing in what comes next for investors?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.1% Undervalued

Altria Group’s most widely followed narrative attaches a fair value of $63.83 per share, well above the last close at $58.05. The current price remains meaningfully below what this narrative considers justified, driven by stable cash flow and unchanged key financial forecasts.

Altria’s investments in brand equity and marketing initiatives like the It's On! campaign have increased consumer awareness and impressions significantly, which could positively impact future sales and earnings. The company's strategic approach to e-vapor includes developing a diverse portfolio of products, leveraging the NJOY acquisition to stay competitive and potentially enhance future earnings as the market becomes more regulated.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what lies beneath this valuation? The calculations rest on bold long-term assumptions for earnings, margins, and a future profit multiple few industries enjoy. The details behind these numbers may surprise you. Discover what makes this narrative’s forecast so intriguing.

Result: Fair Value of $63.83 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing regulatory risks and increased price competition could challenge Altria’s momentum. These factors could potentially shift the outlook for both earnings and valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Altria Group narrative.

Build Your Own Altria Group Narrative

If you want to dig deeper or prefer to shape your own outlook rather than follow consensus, you can easily craft a personalized narrative for Altria in just minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Altria Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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