Earnings Miss: Darling Ingredients Inc. Missed EPS By 47% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a good week for Darling Ingredients Inc. (NYSE:DAR) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 8.4% to US$34.46. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.12 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$1.6b and were slightly better than forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Darling Ingredients' nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$6.18b in 2026. This would be a modest 5.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 286% to US$2.63. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.18b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.78 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Darling Ingredients

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$45.77, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Darling Ingredients analyst has a price target of US$60.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$34.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Darling Ingredients' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 9.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.5% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Darling Ingredients is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Darling Ingredients. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Darling Ingredients analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Darling Ingredients has 4 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.