Adecoagro S.A. Recorded A 21% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE:AGRO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.6% to US$7.67 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues were US$323m, 21% shy of what the analysts were expecting, although statutory earnings of US$0.90 per share were roughly in line with what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Adecoagro's five analysts is for revenues of US$1.46b in 2026. This would reflect a credible 5.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 492% to US$1.39. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.49b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.18 in 2026. While revenue forecasts have been revised downwards, the analysts look to have become more optimistic on the company's cost base, given the solid gain to to the earnings per share numbers.

View our latest analysis for Adecoagro

There's been no real change to the average price target of US$10.70, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Adecoagro analyst has a price target of US$17.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.50. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Adecoagro's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Adecoagro's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Adecoagro following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Adecoagro going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Adecoagro (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.