Vital Farms, Inc.

NasdaqGM:VITL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.4b

Vital Farms Valuation

Is VITL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VITL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VITL ($32.34) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($38.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VITL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VITL?

Key metric: As VITL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VITL. This is calculated by dividing VITL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VITL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.3x
EarningsUS$50.02m
Market CapUS$1.42b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VITL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VITL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.3x
DOLE Dole
9.6x-0.4%US$1.5b
AGRO Adecoagro
6.8x-15.3%US$1.1b
KLG WK Kellogg Co
27.3x24.2%US$1.8b
SOVO Sovos Brands
77.6x57.4%US$2.3b
VITL Vital Farms
28.3x16.6%US$1.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VITL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.3x) compared to the peer average (30.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VITL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GCEH Global Clean Energy Holdings
0.4xn/aUS$45.41m
SEED Origin Agritech
2xn/aUS$17.00m
FAMI Farmmi
1.9xn/aUS$2.72m
IDBH.F Industrias Bachoco. de
0.0002xn/aUS$59.94k
VITL 28.3xIndustry Avg. 19.9xNo. of Companies8PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VITL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.3x) compared to the US Food industry average (20x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VITL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VITL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.3x
Fair PE Ratio22.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VITL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VITL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$32.34
US$42.00
+29.9%
12.3%US$50.00US$34.00n/a5
Nov ’25US$34.56
US$44.60
+29.1%
12.5%US$50.00US$34.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$36.18
US$41.83
+15.6%
11.9%US$50.00US$34.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$31.45
US$41.83
+33.0%
11.9%US$50.00US$34.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$36.51
US$45.33
+24.2%
11.2%US$54.00US$38.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$45.48
US$43.50
-4.4%
14.9%US$54.00US$36.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$41.38
US$38.86
-6.1%
18.1%US$45.00US$24.00n/a7
May ’25US$27.33
US$25.14
-8.0%
19.5%US$32.00US$18.00n/a7
Apr ’25US$23.64
US$23.14
-2.1%
14.7%US$28.00US$18.00n/a7
Mar ’25US$18.26
US$18.43
+0.9%
11.9%US$22.00US$16.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$15.14
US$18.43
+21.7%
11.9%US$22.00US$16.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$15.69
US$17.57
+12.0%
15.8%US$22.00US$14.00n/a7
Dec ’24US$13.90
US$17.00
+22.3%
15.2%US$22.00US$14.00n/a6
Nov ’24US$11.34
US$17.83
+57.3%
18.1%US$22.00US$14.00US$34.566
Oct ’24US$11.58
US$18.00
+55.4%
17.3%US$22.00US$14.00US$36.186
Sep ’24US$11.86
US$18.80
+58.5%
14.8%US$22.00US$15.00US$31.455
Aug ’24US$10.71
US$18.50
+72.8%
14.2%US$22.00US$15.00US$36.516
Jul ’24US$11.99
US$19.83
+65.4%
8.9%US$22.00US$17.00US$45.486
Jun ’24US$14.49
US$19.71
+36.1%
8.5%US$22.00US$17.00US$41.387
May ’24US$13.15
US$19.29
+46.7%
9.5%US$22.00US$16.00US$27.337
Apr ’24US$15.30
US$19.29
+26.1%
9.5%US$22.00US$16.00US$23.647
Mar ’24US$16.28
US$18.57
+14.1%
14.8%US$22.00US$14.50US$18.267
Feb ’24US$17.65
US$18.43
+4.4%
15.0%US$22.00US$14.50US$15.147
Jan ’24US$14.92
US$17.25
+15.6%
14.6%US$22.00US$14.50US$15.698
Dec ’23US$14.37
US$17.25
+20.0%
14.6%US$22.00US$14.50US$13.908
Nov ’23US$13.39
US$16.56
+23.7%
16.8%US$22.00US$13.00US$11.348

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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