Vita Coco (COCO) Is Up 10.8% After Surging Q3 Sales Growth and Raised Guidance—Has the Outlook Shifted?

• The Vita Coco Company, Inc. recently reported third quarter 2025 results, highlighting a 37% year-on-year increase in net sales to US$182.31 million, alongside raised full-year guidance for both net sales and adjusted EBITDA driven by strong coconut water demand and the introduction of Vita Coco Treats in the U.S.
• A significant insight from the announcement is Vita Coco's ability to offset higher tariffs and finished goods costs with effective pricing and lower logistics expenses, while simultaneously supporting investor confidence through a share repurchase program with US$42 million remaining as of September 30, 2025.
• We'll explore how Vita Coco’s raised guidance and strong coconut water growth update its investment narrative and future growth outlook.

Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.

Vita Coco Company Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Vita Coco Company right now, you’re betting on sustained consumer demand for coconut-based beverages, expansion into new product categories, and management’s ability to balance input cost pressures with operational efficiency. The third quarter 2025 results and raised full-year guidance reinforce coconut water as the growth engine, but ongoing tariff uncertainty remains the biggest short-term risk, with current mitigation efforts only partially offsetting potential future cost pressures. The most important near-term catalyst, continued high growth in Vita Coco Coconut Water, appears intact given the sales momentum, though exposure to input costs remains a watchpoint for investors.

Among the recent announcements, the updated full-year sales guidance between US$580 million and US$595 million stands out for its direct connection to the company’s positive Q3 performance and continued coconut water strength. This revised outlook hinges partly on the successful rollout of Vita Coco Treats in the U.S., highlighting management’s confidence in both brand innovation and its ability to manage market risks as the year concludes.

However, investors should also be aware that if tariffs on imported coconut products rise beyond current levels ...

Read the full narrative on Vita Coco Company (it's free!)

Vita Coco Company's outlook anticipates $755.8 million in revenue and $103.0 million in earnings by 2028. This is based on a projected annual revenue growth rate of 10.5% and a $38.6 million increase in earnings from the current $64.4 million.

Uncover how Vita Coco Company's forecasts yield a $43.33 fair value, a 4% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four members of the Simply Wall St Community offered Vita Coco fair value estimates, ranging from US$25.73 to US$57.55 per share. With coconut water growth acting as a key revenue driver, it’s clear that opinions on future performance and risk management differ greatly, consider reviewing these varied viewpoints for a fuller picture.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Vita Coco Company - why the stock might be worth 43% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Vita Coco Company Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Vita Coco Company research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Vita Coco Company research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Vita Coco Company's overall financial health at a glance.

Curious About Other Options?

Opportunities like this don't last. These are today's most promising picks. Check them out now:

• The latest GPUs need a type of rare earth metal called Neodymium and there are only 36 companies in the world exploring or producing it. Find the list for free.
• AI is about to change healthcare. These 34 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.
• Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com