Celsius Holdings (CELH): Assessing Valuation After $300 Million Share Buyback Announcement

Celsius Holdings (CELH) has just revealed a $300 million share repurchase program, approved by its Board of Directors. The buyback comes with no set expiration date, catching the attention of investors who track capital allocation strategies.

See our latest analysis for Celsius Holdings.

Celsius Holdings’ share price has pulled back sharply in recent weeks, with a 38.2% decline over the past month and a 36.3% drop in the last quarter, even after announcing conference appearances and a major buyback that typically signals management’s confidence. Still, its year-to-date share price return stands at a healthy 44.2% and the 1-year total shareholder return is 35%. As a result, long-term momentum remains intact despite recent volatility.

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With the buyback announcement and a significant pullback in share price, the key question is whether Celsius Holdings is now trading at a discount, or if the market has already factored in its growth potential. Could this be a true buying opportunity?

Most Popular Narrative: 39% Undervalued

Compared to the last close of $39.21, the most widely followed narrative puts Celsius Holdings’ fair value at $64.52, pointing to significant upside according to those estimates. This sets the stage for a closer look at what is driving bullish sentiment amid recent volatility.

Expansion of distribution and increased activation through leading partners (PepsiCo in North America, Suntory internationally) is accelerating store count, new market entries, and international growth (27% YoY). This provides exposure to broader health and wellness trends globally and underpins expectations for long-term revenue expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the growth blueprint behind this high valuation? The main ingredient in this narrative is unstoppable distribution expansion and rapidly improving profit margins. What bold assumptions are stacked behind these numbers? Click to see the full story and the key drivers that make this price target so compelling.

Result: Fair Value of $64.52 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising input costs and acquisition-related integration challenges could pressure margins and potentially dampen the optimistic earnings outlook for Celsius Holdings.

Find out about the key risks to this Celsius Holdings narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Paint a Cautious Picture

Looking through the lens of the price-to-sales ratio, Celsius Holdings appears expensive versus industry benchmarks. At 4.8x, its ratio is well above the industry average of 1.7x and even higher than its own fair ratio of 3.6x. This gap suggests a valuation risk if growth expectations falter. Could the market be leaning too far forward?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Celsius Holdings Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can quickly assemble your own take in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Celsius Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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