Results: Mission Produce, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Mission Produce, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVO) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 17% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$334m, while EPS were US$0.05 beating analyst models by 400%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Mission Produce

After the latest results, the consensus from Mission Produce's two analysts is for revenues of US$1.19b in 2025, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 8.9% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 19% to US$0.46 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.11b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.45 in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 9.7% to US$17.00per share.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 12% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Mission Produce's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Mission Produce following these results. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Mission Produce (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.