Tullow Oil plc

OTCPK:TUWL.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$426.6m

Tullow Oil Valuation

Is TUWL.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TUWL.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TUWL.F ($0.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($1.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TUWL.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TUWL.F?

Key metric: As TUWL.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TUWL.F. This is calculated by dividing TUWL.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TUWL.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.2x
EarningsUS$16.30m
Market CapUS$426.56m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TUWL.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TUWL.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.5x
GPRK GeoPark
3.9x12.0%US$424.9m
BRY Berry
3.9x-2.9%US$322.4m
SD SandRidge Energy
9.3xn/aUS$434.8m
GTE Gran Tierra Energy
5x-113.4%US$224.4m
TUWL.F Tullow Oil
26.2x18.8%US$337.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TUWL.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.2x) compared to the peer average (5.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TUWL.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
TUWL.F 26.2xIndustry Avg. 11.7xNo. of Companies19PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TUWL.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.2x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TUWL.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TUWL.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.2x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate TUWL.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TUWL.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$0.23
US$0.70
+201.3%
39.5%US$1.27US$0.27n/a10
Nov ’25n/a
US$0.71
0%
39.4%US$1.27US$0.27n/a10
Oct ’25US$0.30
US$0.72
+140.6%
38.3%US$1.27US$0.27n/a10
Sep ’25US$0.35
US$0.73
+108.2%
36.2%US$1.27US$0.32n/a10
Aug ’25US$0.38
US$0.74
+95.0%
34.9%US$1.27US$0.32n/a10
Jul ’25n/a
US$0.74
0%
33.6%US$1.27US$0.38n/a10
Jun ’25n/a
US$0.74
0%
34.2%US$1.27US$0.38n/a10
May ’25US$0.50
US$0.73
+45.8%
35.9%US$1.27US$0.34n/a10
Apr ’25US$0.40
US$0.72
+78.3%
36.3%US$1.27US$0.34n/a10
Mar ’25US$0.36
US$0.71
+94.3%
39.5%US$1.27US$0.34n/a9
Feb ’25US$0.41
US$0.68
+68.9%
40.3%US$1.27US$0.34n/a10
Jan ’25US$0.48
US$0.70
+45.3%
36.5%US$1.27US$0.43n/a10
Dec ’24US$0.44
US$0.70
+57.5%
36.4%US$1.27US$0.43n/a10
Nov ’24US$0.42
US$0.68
+63.1%
36.2%US$1.25US$0.43n/a10
Oct ’24US$0.47
US$0.69
+48.6%
45.0%US$1.25US$0.31US$0.309
Sep ’24n/a
US$0.71
0%
44.1%US$1.30US$0.32US$0.359
Aug ’24US$0.44
US$0.71
+62.4%
43.4%US$1.30US$0.32US$0.389
Jul ’24US$0.36
US$0.70
+94.1%
44.2%US$1.26US$0.31n/a9
Jun ’24n/a
US$0.69
0%
44.7%US$1.24US$0.31n/a9
May ’24US$0.34
US$0.68
+98.6%
40.1%US$1.09US$0.31US$0.5010
Apr ’24US$0.38
US$0.70
+84.3%
34.8%US$1.09US$0.41US$0.4010
Mar ’24US$0.40
US$0.74
+86.1%
30.2%US$1.09US$0.42US$0.3611
Feb ’24US$0.44
US$0.78
+77.6%
37.8%US$1.48US$0.43US$0.4111
Jan ’24US$0.46
US$0.88
+91.6%
24.1%US$1.43US$0.57US$0.4811
Dec ’23US$0.51
US$0.88
+72.7%
24.1%US$1.43US$0.57US$0.4411
Nov ’23US$0.52
US$0.89
+71.9%
19.3%US$1.34US$0.69US$0.4211

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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