Avance Gas Holding Ltd

OTCPK:AVAC.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$733.0m

Avance Gas Holding Valuation

Is AVAC.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AVAC.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AVAC.F ($9.59) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($42.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AVAC.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AVAC.F?

Key metric: As AVAC.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AVAC.F. This is calculated by dividing AVAC.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AVAC.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio2.5x
EarningsUS$298.63m
Market CapUS$732.95m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AVAC.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AVAC.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.4x
TK Teekay
4.8xn/aUS$695.4m
NAT Nordic American Tankers
10.1x39.2%US$620.1m
TEN Tsakos Energy Navigation
3.5x5.0%US$591.6m
ASC Ardmore Shipping
3.3x-26.4%US$497.8m
AVAC.F Avance Gas Holding
2.5x-81.6%US$8.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AVAC.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.5x) compared to the peer average (5.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AVAC.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
AVAC.F 2.5xIndustry Avg. 11.6xNo. of Companies18PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AVAC.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AVAC.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AVAC.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio2.5x
Fair PE Ratio2.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AVAC.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AVAC.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$9.59
US$12.28
+28.0%
12.9%US$14.17US$10.30n/a3
Nov ’25US$9.21
US$12.28
+33.3%
12.9%US$14.17US$10.30n/a3
Oct ’25US$10.22
US$12.28
+20.1%
12.9%US$14.17US$10.30n/a3
Sep ’25US$12.00
US$13.26
+10.5%
5.7%US$14.28US$12.47n/a3
Aug ’25US$15.10
US$17.99
+19.1%
2.1%US$18.46US$17.52n/a3
Jul ’25US$15.43
US$18.04
+16.9%
1.1%US$18.23US$17.76n/a3
Jun ’25US$17.45
US$18.04
+3.4%
1.1%US$18.23US$17.76n/a3
May ’25US$14.40
US$14.85
+3.1%
7.5%US$15.99US$13.32n/a3
Apr ’25US$11.55
US$14.85
+28.5%
7.5%US$15.99US$13.32n/a3
Mar ’25US$10.65
US$14.85
+39.4%
7.5%US$15.99US$13.32n/a3
Feb ’25US$11.73
US$14.88
+26.9%
19.3%US$17.08US$9.98n/a4
Jan ’25US$14.77
US$14.87
+0.7%
19.9%US$16.70US$9.76n/a4
Dec ’24US$14.77
US$14.87
+0.7%
19.9%US$16.70US$9.76n/a4
Nov ’24US$14.44
US$13.71
-5.1%
10.1%US$15.65US$12.52US$9.213
Oct ’24US$10.88
US$10.76
-1.1%
4.3%US$11.29US$10.16US$10.223
Sep ’24US$10.02
US$10.76
+7.4%
4.3%US$11.29US$10.16US$12.003
Aug ’24US$8.47
US$9.91
+17.0%
7.7%US$10.96US$9.15US$15.103
Jul ’24US$8.45
US$9.58
+13.4%
5.8%US$10.36US$9.10US$15.433
Jun ’24US$8.55
US$9.58
+12.0%
5.8%US$10.36US$9.10US$17.453
May ’24US$6.91
US$7.74
+12.0%
14.7%US$8.59US$6.13US$14.403
Apr ’24US$6.53
US$8.01
+22.8%
15.7%US$9.14US$6.25US$11.553
Mar ’24US$7.83
US$7.48
-4.5%
15.8%US$9.15US$6.55US$10.653
Feb ’24US$6.45
US$7.08
+9.8%
5.8%US$7.59US$6.58US$11.733
Jan ’24US$6.10
US$7.06
+15.7%
5.3%US$7.50US$6.58US$14.773
Dec ’23US$7.05
US$7.06
+0.2%
5.3%US$7.50US$6.58US$14.773
Nov ’23US$6.08
US$6.67
+9.6%
6.8%US$7.12US$6.05US$14.443

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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