YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Stock Overview
An energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 3/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
YPF Community Fair Values
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YPF Sociedad Anónima Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | AR$53.01 |
| 52 Week High | AR$53.61 |
| 52 Week Low | AR$22.82 |
| Beta | -0.045 |
| 1 Month Change | 22.20% |
| 3 Month Change | 49.96% |
| 1 Year Change | 49.83% |
| 3 Year Change | 361.76% |
| 5 Year Change | 881.67% |
| Change since IPO | 142.33% |
Recent News & Updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Apr 06
YPF Sociedad Anonima: Re-Rating Has More Behind It Than Oil
Summary YPF Sociedad Anónima’s recent re-rating has been driven by higher Brent and the removal of a major litigation overhang, but underlying performance suggests the story is increasingly execution-led. Shale continues to scale with strong volume growth and falling costs, allowing EBITDA and margins to expand even in weaker pricing environments. Guidance is based on a conservative $63 Brent assumption, while current oil prices suggest meaningful upside to EBITDA and consensus estimates. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 17
YPF S.A.: New Growth Catalysts Will Likely Revitalize Share Price In Coming Months
Summary YPF's 2024 results show strong growth in shale oil production and reserves, driven by developments in the Vaca Muerta region. Pro-market reforms and energy investments position YPF as a future global natural gas exporter, benefiting from trade openness. Despite recent stock pullback, YPF's fundamentals and favorable valuations offer an excellent risk-return ratio for investors. Political risks and crude oil price volatility remain concerns, but YPF's solid fundamentals and macroeconomic progress support potential upside. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 28
YPF Sociedad: It's Time To Book Profits On This Foreign Winner (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Argentina's stock market has outperformed, with the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF tripling since January 2022, driven by pro-capitalist policies. YPF SA ADR has surged 180% since November 2023, but I'm downgrading it from a buy to a hold due to valuation concerns. Despite strong operational performance, YPF faces potential downside risks, including geopolitical instability, lower oil prices, and a strong US dollar. Technical indicators suggest YPF may face a significant decline, with key support levels at $30 and $25, making trimming gains prudent. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 17
YPF Sociedad Anónima: De-Risked And Executing Growth Plan
Summary I upgrade YPF to a buy from hold with a US$41 price target due to rapid price normalization and growth in Vaca Muerta shale. YPF's ability to align crude and downstream product prices with global levels has improved margins, enabling aggressive shale production expansion and potential crude exports. Estimates point to significant growth potential, with EBITDA margins expanding and exports impacting revenue positively by 2026. YPF's valuation remains attractive with a 28% upside potential, supported by a 4x EV/EBITDA target multiple and peer comparisons, despite Argentina's inherent risks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 16
Even At The Peak Of Its 52-Week Range, YPF Looks Like A Value Pick
Summary YPF Sociedad Anonima is a value stock trading at the top of its 52-week range but remains undervalued with a P/E ratio of 5.41. YPF's main business is in Argentina, with regional interests in South America, including potential growth in LNG exports. Despite a current ratio under 1.0, YPF's strong profitability and a price/book ratio of 0.85 make it an attractive value pick. YPF is rated a buy due to its low valuation metrics, though the lack of a dividend and economic risks in Argentina are considerations. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 07
YPF Sociedad Anónima: Structural, Fiscal Tailwinds Driving Equity Gains
Summary YPF Sociedad Anónima stock has increased by over 95% since the 2023 Argentinian presidential election results. The new government's ambitious target of reducing the budget deficit has led to significant spending cuts, particularly in non-discretionary spending. YPF has potential tailwinds, including record-high oil production in the Neuquen region and the construction of a new oil pipeline, which could be major catalysts for the company. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 19
YPF Stock: A Shale Oil Boom In Argentina
Summary YPF SA is trading at a 6-year high amid improving sentiment toward the Argentine economy. The company's latest quarterly result was highlighted by strong shale oil production growth. We expect the momentum in the stock to continue. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 16
YPF Sociedad: Curb Your Enthusiasm
Summary YPF has seen success in Vaca Muerta production growth but has faced lower margins due to price controls and currency devaluation in Argentina. The company's financial statements have been overstated due to the use of an artificial exchange rate, causing potential declines in results with the devaluation. YPF may struggle to raise pump prices in line with the devaluation, leading to a decline in EBITDA in 2024. Downgrade to Hold on to a tough transition year ahead. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 20
YPF Soars 40% Following Argentina's Surprising Pro-Business Election Result
Summary Shares of the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF have surged nearly 55% following pro-business election results in Argentina. YPF Sociedad Anónima is a buy with a cheap valuation and reduced political risks, despite disappointing Q3 results. YPF's future earnings and dividend potential are uncertain under new leadership, but there is potential for growth and shareholder returns. I outline key price levels to watch after Monday's stunning move in YPF. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 31
YPF Sociedad Anónima: Numerous Hurdles To Overcome To Surprise At Q3 Earnings
Summary YPF Sociedad Anónima is a South American resources company operating mostly in Argentina with multiple factors for consideration in the investment debate. The company's stock price has consolidated below key moving averages and is trading at cheap multiples. However, there are risks such as government price controls on oil, high inflation in Argentina, and flat sales + earnings growth expectations, clamping the mid-term investment outlook. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 04
YPF Sociedad Anónima: A Speculative Trend Play With Record Profits, Low Multiples, And Deleveraging
Summary YPF's net margin is at a record high since 2014, while net debt has fallen 36% to $6.31b. The company's P/S, P/B, and EV/EBITDA multiples are all near their lowest levels since 2014. YPF's refinery processing levels recently reached a 13-year high, and shale oil and gas production grew 31% and 9% YoY. Despite risks such as Argentina’s history of economic instability and the potential for import/export restrictions, YPF’s strong financials and upward price momentum present an opportunity for investors. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 21
YPF Sociedad Anónima: A Very Undervalued Sleeping Shale Giant
Summary YPF Sociedad Anónima is the largest integrated oil and gas company in Argentina. Argentina has some of the largest shale reserves in the world, and YPF Sociedad Anónima is a major player in this basin. The company may be able to become a major exporter of energy, as its shale production is expected to exceed its capacity to refine the resources. The company is quite strong financially and has been working to improve its balance sheet over the past two years. YPF appears to be substantially undervalued even when we consider the inherent risks of the Argentine government's controlling position. YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) is an Argentine integrated oil and gas company that has long been somewhat controversial in the investing community. The traditional fossil fuel industry has surprisingly not attracted as much attention from many investors as we would think over the past year despite being by far the best-performing sector and one of the only ones to deliver a positive return. As a result, most energy companies are incredibly cheap, and YPF is certainly not an exception to this. In fact, as we will see in this article, it is almost ridiculously so. Although there are some risks associated with the firm, it may be worth considering for investment as it has significant growth potential over the next few years. About YPF Sociedad Anónima As stated in the introduction, YPF Sociedad Anónima is an Argentine integrated oil and gas company. It is by far the largest company in Argentina in terms of revenue and has been a major part of the country's economy for about one hundred years. As such, it was deemed to be critical for national security, and the Argentine government owns 51% of the outstanding shares. This is an ownership structure that will certainly make many American investors nervous, although it is relatively common in many other countries around the world. Unlike what we see with many European energy companies that also have government control, in the case of YPF its ownership by Argentina has proven to be both a positive and a negative over the years. One reason for this is that Argentina has had a number of financial crises over the years as the government has defaulted on its debts nine times over its relatively short history (it formally gained independence in the 1810s). The nation also has a history of military coups and government instability, which would certainly represent a risk to any investment in the country. Despite the risks though, YPF certainly has a lot of potential due to the enormous resource reserves possessed by the South American nation. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Argentina has the fifth largest oil and gas reserves in the world. A significant percentage of these are in the Vaca Muerta Basin, which is believed to be the second-largest deposit of shale oil in the world, after the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. The United States and Argentina together hold about 38% of the world's shale oil reserves. The Vaca Muerta is not the only hydrocarbon deposit in the nation, either. In fact, YPF holds interests in five different deposits throughout the country: YPF Investor Presentation As might be expected for a government-controlled energy company, YPF holds interests in every major oil project that occurs in the nation. In fact, the company produces 38% of all crude oil and 31% of all natural gas extracted in Argentina: YPF Investor Presentation This is a very good position to be in today. As everyone reading this is no doubt well aware, the price of crude oil has risen substantially over the past twelve months. As of the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate crude oil is up 7.58% over the past year following a steep decline in the second half of the year: Business Insider YPF is not able to realize these prices, though. One reason for this is that Argentine oil sells at a discount to West Texas Intermediate crude oil. This discount currently averages about 20% but it has been as high as 40% in the past. However, a more important thing that has been preventing YPF from fully exploiting the improvements in the energy pricing environment lately has been price controls imposed by the Argentine government on crude oil and gas. This is not an "official" government policy, but the government is running policies that result in oil and gas being sold at a very large spread to world energy prices as it is attempting to counter the impact that high energy prices have on the economy. As a result, YPF's revenues have not increased by nearly as much as those of most other traditional companies over the past year: YPF Investor Presentation This is probably one reason why the company has not grown its production very much despite its substantial reserves. As we can see, YPF has generally kept its production flat-to-declining regardless of energy prices: YPF Investor Presentation At this point, many readers will likely point out that this does not look like a very good energy investment. Indeed, if it did not have a catalyst to change the situation, then I would agree with that sentiment. This catalyst comes from the company's large position in the Vaca Muerta shale plays, which YPF has just begun to develop. The company has been aggressively increasing its production in this region over the past few years: YPF Investor Presentation It is currently working to expand this further. The reason that this becomes a catalyst for growth is that the company can begin exporting this oil. YPF has already indicated that by the end of 2023, the company will be producing more shale oil than it can refine. The nice thing about oil exports is that YPF will be able to avoid the government's de facto price controls and sell crude oil at world prices, which are considerably higher. YPF has projected that it will generate an extra $300 million in 2023 revenue and $4 billion in 2026 revenue at $90 crude oil. I somewhat doubt that things will play out that well for the company, as $90 per barrel West Texas Intermediate seems very optimistic for 2023 given the potential for the United States and Europe to enter into recessions in the very near future. That may be reasonable for 2026, though, which we will discuss in just a few minutes. We need to keep in mind that Argentine crude oil sells at a discount to West Texas Intermediate as well, which will reduce YPF's ability to fully capture the world oil price. It is uncertain whether or not the company took this into account when crafting its estimates and if it did, what discount it used. As mentioned earlier, Argentine crude typically sells at a discount of 20% to West Texas Intermediate crude oil, but it has sold at larger discounts in the past. Either way, this scenario would increase far more than revenues as it should have a positive impact on cash flow and EBITDA, too. This is likely why the company's stock has appreciated by 145.65% in the past six months despite oil prices declining over that period: Seeking Alpha This steep appreciation does not mean that the stock has become expensive, though. In fact, it looks very cheap. There may be reasons for that though beyond the general risks related to the Argentine government so let us investigate further. Fundamentals Of Crude Oil Contrary to what politicians and environmental activists want you to think, the global demand for crude oil and natural gas is not going anywhere. In fact, the fundamentals point to both rising demand and rising prices going forward. According to the International Energy Agency, the global demand for crude oil will increase by 7% and the global demand for natural gas will increase by 29% over the next twenty years: Pembina Pipeline/Data from IEA Perhaps surprisingly, the natural gas demand growth will be driven by international concerns about climate change. These concerns have induced governments all around the world to impose a variety of incentives and mandates that are meant to reduce the carbon emissions of their respective nations. Among the most common of these incentives is encouraging utilities to retire old coal-fired power plants in favor of renewables. Unfortunately, renewables are a flawed solution because they are quite unreliable. After all, wind power does not work when the air is still and solar power does not work at night. Battery technology is nowhere near capable of overcoming these problems so the usual solution is to supplement renewables with natural gas turbines. This is because natural gas produces much fewer carbon emissions than other fossil fuels and has the reliability to ensure the "always-on" performance that we have come to expect from the electric grid. The case for crude oil may be more difficult to understand as many Western governments have been actively attempting to discourage the consumption of crude oil. However, it is a very different story in the various emerging nations around the world. These nations are expected to see tremendous economic growth over the projection period, which will have the effect of lifting the citizens of these nations out of poverty and putting them firmly into the middle class. These newly middle-class people will naturally begin to desire a lifestyle that is much closer to that of their Western counterparts than they have now. This will require increased consumption of energy, including energy derived from crude oil. As the populations of these nations are higher than those of the developed nations, the growing crude oil consumption in these regions will more than offset the stagnant-to-declining production in the world's wealthier nations. This would seem to create an opportunity for oil and gas companies to increase their profits by simply increasing their production and selling into this rising demand. This is highly unlikely to happen, however. The oil and gas industry is under tremendous pressure from politicians and activists to improve its sustainability and from shareholders to increase its returns. The energy industry has also taken a few blows over the past decade as there have been two commodity price crashes. This generally resulted in the industry significantly underinvesting in production capacity. According to Moody's, the industry must increase upstream spending by $542 billion in order to avoid a supply shock. There is no reason for it to increase spending to this degree given the aforementioned pressure. In addition to all of this, we are seeing disappointing production in areas like Norway that have actually been working to increase their output. Thus, it seems almost certain that the demand growth for crude oil will exceed the supply growth, which economic law tells us results in rising prices. This will naturally benefit YPF, particularly as it grows its shale production and begins exporting. In fact, Argentina is one of the only nations in the world that actually can increase its production so the company might be uniquely positioned to take advantage of the current situation. Financial Considerations It is always critical that we examine the way that a company finances itself before investing in it. This is because debt is a riskier way to finance a company than equity because debt must be repaid. As this is typically accomplished by issuing new debt to repay the maturing debt, a company's interest expenses can increase following the rollover depending on conditions in the market. In addition to this, a company must make regular payments on its debt if it is to remain solvent. As such, an event that causes a firm's cash flows to decline can push a company into financial distress if it has too much debt. Given the volatility of commodity prices, this can be an especially big risk for an energy company. One metric that we can use to evaluate a company's debt load is the leverage ratio, which is also known as the net debt-to-EBITDAX ratio. This ratio essentially tells us how many years it would take a company to completely pay off its debt if it were to devote all of its pre-tax cash flow to that task. YPF currently has a leverage ratio of 1.2x based on its most recent trailing twelve-month EBITDAX, which is the end result of a series of improvements since the first quarter of 2021: YPF Investor Presentation The company's current leverage ratio is not unreasonable, although it is quite a bit higher than the sub-1.0x ratios possessed by some of the best American shale oil drillers. The company's management has generally been expressing a desire to reduce its debt further so we may continue to see improvements here as it brings its export business online. Overall, the company's debt is certainly not too bad, though. Further evidence that the company's debt is quite reasonable can be found by looking at its maturity schedule. As we can see here, the company has minimal debt maturities until 2025: YPF Investor PresentationSeeking Alpha • Nov 09
YPF Sociedad Anónima Q3 2022 Earnings Preview
YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Thursday, Nov. 10, before market open. The consensus EPS estimate is $1.02 and the consensus revenue estimate is $4.38B (+21% Y/Y). Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions, while revenue estimates have seen 4 upward revisions. SA contributor Ricardo Fernandez said YPF (YPF) is starting a path of production growth and the upside is considerably more than the downside, rating the stock Buy.Seeking Alpha • Oct 13
YPF Sociedad Anónima: Oil Exports And Growth On The Horizon
Summary Production could double between 2026 and 2030. Exports would drive margins and free cash flow. Value created by debt reduction and EBITDA growth. Argentina risk priced at 2.5x EV/EBITDA. Summary Investment Thesis YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) or Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales as it's called in Argentina, has been severely limited to reach its potential and develop the Vaca Muerta resources in the last 12 years. This entailed de facto price controls, currency exchange restrictions, forced debt restructure, high leverage, falling production and closed capital markets. 2022 appears to be the turning point: YPF is recuperating pricing power and margins, spending US$4bn in capex and targeting to double oil and gas production production by 2026 while exports could be on the horizon. The equity market seems enthused with shares tripling since July 2022 as production grew and 2Q22 results came in with surprising strength on domestic pricing. However, capital controls and political risk remain. Debt and equity rating improvements may suffer headwinds from Argentine country risk. On my estimates, which are 50% of YPF guidance, the company may see oil and gas volumes double by 2030 and begin exports in 2025. This would drive free cash flow, deleveraging and substantial value creation for its bonds and equity. Key is the capacity to fund medium term capex to unlock Vaca Muerta production. At 2.5x EV/EBITDA on YE23 estimates the stock has 100% upside, in my view. What is YPF YPF is a 100yr old Argentinian integrated exploration and production oil company. It produces oil & gas that it refines and distributes thought Argentina. The Argentine state owns 51% which has been at times a curse and at other times a blessing. Upstream: Conventional and Shale resources i.e., Vaca Muerta. Oil volume production of 227k bpd (barrels per day) and natural gas of 290k bpd equivalent. Downstream: Refining capacity of 320k bpd and 1500 gas stations and associated pipelines and distribution. YPF is also the 3rd largest electric energy producer with 2400 MW of thermal (natural gas) capacity. YPF Historic and Estimated Oil and Gas Production (Created by author with data from YPF) YPF Historic and estimated Revenue and EBITDA (Created by author with data from YPF) Vaca Muerta Discovered more than 12 years ago, the Vaca Muerta formation holds 308bn m3 of gas and 16bn bbl of oil, twice the size of Eagle Ford. But it has seen near zero development due to Argentina’s erratic energy regulations/price controls and a difficult macroeconomic situation that entails capital controls, the free flow of USD. It has been a very risky place for foreign and domestic companies. YPF has about 50% of the acreage to Vaca Muerta where it has finally begun to deploy significant capex of US$4bn to US$5bn to double its oil and gas production by 2026. The Vaca Muerta shale formation (as in most shale resources) provides rapid capex conversion with 6 months from drilling to production. However, drilling and production is not the main challenge nor the obstacle, it is bringing this volume to market i.e. midstream or pipeline and storage infrastructure. YPF has detailed 4 pipelines than are being built or need to be, to monetize this oil and gas. The reactivation of Gas Andes is already occurring, which will allow for oil and gas exports to Chile. Shale Oil should be the primary product, it has less infrastructure friction as Atlantic coast ports can handle exports. Natural Gas has more hurdles as first it needs to satisfy domestic needs to replace Bolivian and LNG imports. Then LNG plants need to be built for eventual export. As long as political/macro forces do not greatly interfere, Argentina may finally develop Vaca Muerta. I am far more conservative than YPF and estimated production to double by 2030 vs 2026. Argentina Oil and Gas Production ((YPF)) Price Controls While gasoline/diesel price controls don't exist, YPF has been "asked" to hold back prices as seen in the realized oil price vs WTI chart. As an integrated oil company YPF sell most of its crude to its refining company who then sells gasoline and diesel to its distribution i.e., gas stations. If prices at the pump do not rise with crude oil, then the distribution or refining report lower margins and thus YPF reduces its effective margins vs free market pricing. This has led to lower FCF, lower capex, higher debt, and declining production. I assume national production will continue to have a discount vs WTI of about 20%, which is a big improvement vs 40% seen at end of 2021. The best way to circumvent de facto price controls is to export crude at market prices and this is where production growth at Vaca Muerta comes in. Under my estimate’s margins begin to expand more aggressively in 2025 and YPF starts to generate free cash flow to fund oil and gas production expansion. YPF Price Gap vs WTI (Created by author with data from YPF) Oil Exports The company indicated a scenario of oil exports by 2023 as shale oil output increases beyond refining capacity. At US$90 for WTI this would be US$300m revenue in 2023 and climb to US$4bn in potential revenue by 2026 and lead to significant EBITDA growth, far above my estimates. My estimates are far more conservative but have a very positive impact on operating results. I assume exports start in 2025 at 9k bpd and climb to 119k bpd by 2030 or 17% of sales. This is predicated on YPF doubling oil volumes by 2030 vs 2026 as they target, as well as US$90 WTI. Oil Export Volume Scenarios (Created by author with data from YPF) YPF Oil Export Estimates (Created by author with data from YPF) Deleveraging While YPFs debt rating is unlikely to improve before Argentina’s, credit risk may decline as the company improves FCF. Key is the ability to fund capex in 2023 with domestic funding. Argentina's highly distorted macro/financial situation makes this possible. Domestic investors and banks need/want dollar assets, YPF (and other corporations with dollar revenue/pricing power) place dollar linked debt at zero rates. The company seemed confident this was a viable and deep source of funding. Once 2023/24 capex gets converted into production and eventually exports, YPF can turn FCF positive and deleverage. The risks to this scenario are plentiful and include the depth of the Argentine USD linked debt market as well as production execution, regulation and oil markets. YPF Cash Flow Debt and Leverage Estimates (Created by author with data from YPF) No Consensus YPF has had a very good 1H22 and 2H22 is guiding for higher EBITDA on better pricing and higher production. However, as can be seen in the charts below, consensus (sell side analysts) doesn’t really believe YPF and assumes a return to price controls and flat or low growth in production.Seeking Alpha • Oct 03
YPF Sociedad: The Top Quant-Ranked Stock Features A Favorable Chart Setup
Summary The Energy sector remains the lone group positive on the year. One small-cap foreign oil & gas company boasts strong earnings growth and a very low valuation. YPF's technical chart shows a potentially bullish pattern with a favorable risk/reward.Seeking Alpha • Sep 01
YPF, Petronas in talks to build Argentina gas pipeline, LNG plant - Reuters
YPF (NYSE:YPF) and Malaysia's Petronas are in talks over plans to build a new gas pipeline in Argentina and a liquefied natural gas plant, and may sign an early-stage agreement Thursday, Reuters reports. The office of Argentina's president said the two firms would cement an "alliance" related to the development of unconventional gas in the country. The agreement, if it becomes reality, could generate investment of as much as $40B over 10 years, according to the report.Seeking Alpha • Aug 10
YPF Sociedad Anónima Q2 Earnings Preview
YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Thursday, August 11th, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.69 (+156.6% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $3.87B (+15.6% Y/Y). Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 1 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 8 upward revisions and 2 downward.Seeking Alpha • Jul 19
YPF Sociedad Anonima: Ridiculously Undervalued, Still Not Buying
YPF is trading at all-time-lows, like most Argentine stocks. Metrics show the company is indeed trading at compelling prices. Vaca Muerta, the world's second-largest shale gas reservoir shows enormous potential. Unfortunately, risks, uncertainties, poor decision-making, among other factors, overcome all virtues. In this article I explain why I decided not to buy YPF (yet), despite today's depressed prices. I also explain what my strategy is in order to gain exposure to Vaca Muerta and other interesting assets YPF can offer, while avoiding YPF's intrinsic risks. Elevator Pitch Hey. + Hi. Have you ever heard of YPF's stock (YPF)? + Ehm... no, not really. What's that? YPF stands for 'Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales'. It's the largest Argentine company in terms of revenue, USD 15 billion a year. It's a leading player in Upstream, Downstream, and Power Generation in the country. It also holds interest in Vaca Muerta, the world's second-largest unconventional gas reservoir with untapped potential probably worth hundreds of billions of dollars. + Oh, okay. Wow. That sounds really promising. Yeah... no. Don't buy it. Introduction Okay, worst elevator pitch ever, but it does summarize our line of thought here. As we will see, YPF's assets are impressive indeed, and its stock certainly is trading at very compelling prices. However, as will be discussed later on, risks and uncertainties are just too high. Moreover, when we take a look at other Argentine listed companies we find we can very easily put together a stock portfolio with exposure to the most attractive assets YPF can offer us, while at the same time avoiding most of these intrinsic risks and uncertainties. Company Overlook YPF is just massive. It's a 100 year-old company and the largest in Argentina in terms of revenue, about USD 15 billion a year. It's a leading integrated player in the local O&G industry and present in the entire value chain. It has a dominant position in upstream with 35% of the total country's total production (39% in crude oil and 32% in gas) with operations in all productive basins, including Vaca Muerta, a massive shale oil and gas formation with potentially more reserves than the country will ever need. YPF's dominant upstream position (Company's presentation) YPF is also a leading player in downstream with a nation-wide downstream distribution network with over 1,600 gas stations, totaling 55% of market share in terms of gasoline and diesel sales. As if that wasn't enough, it also holds a controlling stake in Metrogas, the largest natural gas distributor in Argentina with over 2.2 million customers, and YPF Luz, a key player in power generation with about 2,500 MW of installed capacity. Here is a glance at YPF's main affiliates. YPF's main affiliates (Company's presentation) Key Metrics YPF's capital stock is comprised of 393 million shares. At a price per share of about USD 2.9 at the time of writing this article, the company is trading at a market capitalization of around USD 1,100 million. First, please note that this market cap differs from what most online platforms will show you, reason being that these platforms calculate first the market capitalization in Argentinian Peso ((ARS)) - based on number of shares issued and price per share in the Argentinian stock market - and then convert that to USD using the official FX rate. However, due to strict capital controls currently in place in Argentina, this official FX rate differs significantly from the free market's FX rate known locally as 'Contado Con Liqui', the former sitting at about ARS 135 per USD, while the latter is closer to ARS 300 per USD. The real market cap is unquestionably USD 1,100 million. There are 393 million shares, each trading at USD 2.9 in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), so in theory you would need USD 1,100 million to buy all the shares, or a 100% stake in the company. End of story. With that out of the way, let's go ahead and take a look at some key metrics. Company's net debt sits at about USD 5,900 million, therefore YPF's Enterprise Value is USD 7,000 million. If we take a quick look at 2021's numbers, we find that YPF finished the year with an EBITDA of almost USD 4,000 million, while 2022 will probably end with an EBITDA closer to USD 4,200 million. This numbers spit out the ridiculously low ratio EV-to-EBITDA of 1.6x. Let's pause here for a second and think about what this means. If we expect this ratio to converge to something a little more sensible, a ratio of say 4x, we would need an EV of USD 16,800 million. Considering a steady net debt of USD 5,900 million, this would require a market cap of almost USD 11,000 million, almost 10x the current market cap! YPF would comfortably be a ten-bagger. Now, all these number need a 'little' tweak. You see, we've reached an EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.6x by considering an EBITDA of 4,200 million and a net debt of 5,900 million. But these numbers might not represent faithfully the reality of the business. YPF reports its EBITDA mostly by taking first its EBITDA in ARS (all of its revenue is in ARS) and then divide that by the official FX rate. This is not wrong per se, but since the company is unable to access that exchange rate freely due to those capital controls we mentioned earlier, this EBITDA isn't representative of what's really going on. Let's try to make this point clearer with a small exercise. Imagine you expect to cash out say 12% of the EBITDA via dividends (just taking a random number). YPF should then distribute around USD 500 million, but the company should use the generated ARS and be able to access the official FX rate and buy USD for doing so, but it just can't. With 12% of the EBITDA, it could buy only USD 225 million at the market's FX exchange. So for our purposes we should be better off considering the EBITDA to be USD 1,900 million (i.e. taking EBITDA in ARS and dividing that by the 'Contado con Liqui' rate), and not USD 4,200 million. On the other hand, the company can access the official exchange rate to pay off its debt (though with some limitations we'll be studying later on). So instead of USD 5,900 of net debt we should be considering USD 2,655 million. This is a fictitious number, not related to the reality of the company, but we do this to make it 'compatible' with other numbers. So EV/EBITDA is in fact (1,100 + 2,655) / 1,900 = 2x, higher than the 1.6x we originally calculated. Still, arguably a great ratio. Of course, all this has been an extremely oversimplification and probably not the most elegant way of doing things, maybe even badly enough to offend some analyst (yeah, sorry for that), but that's ok. It will do just fine for our purposes here. With this ratio in mind, I believe it's safe to say that YPF is indeed undervalued. Especially when we consider the enormous potential Vaca Muerta offers. But before you jump ahead and buy the stock, let me walk you through the main reasons why I decided not to buy YPF (yet) despite this obvious undervaluation. 1. Gross Debt too High Let's start by taking a look at YPF's debt situation. First, the good news. YPF has been improving its debt consistently since 2016. YPF's net debt evolution since 2015 (Company's presentation) In fact, in 1Q2022, YPF's net debt is actually lower than shown in the graph above currently, about USD 5,900 million. That's 27% less than 2016's. In 1Q2022, EBITDA reached about USD 950 million, so the company could reach about 3,800 million of EBITDA a year (I actually believe it will be closer to 4,200 million). That's a Net Debt to EBITDA ratio of just 1.4x (notice we are allowed to do this ratio since both numbers are expressed at the official FX rate, so they are 'compatible'). That's actually really good. So what's the problem? The main concern here is that in Argentina it's not enough to just have a low Net Debt to EBITDA ratio. You need to have a small amount of debt in nominal terms. Moreover, you want to have your debt maturities well distributed over the years, giving you enough margin of maneuver if things get too complicated (which they often do). In this market, companies struggle constantly to access USD - there are almost always capital controls in place - and since most of the debt is USD-denominated while revenue is usually in ARS (even for most of exports), then if you can't access - for whatever reason - the FX market to get your hands on some fresh dollars to pay back your debt, then you may find yourself in quite a pickle very quickly. Local companies understand this very well and they keep not only their debt ratios low but also their amount of debt in nominal terms at very low levels (trying at the same time not to lose its tax shield). Let's go ahead and be a little more precise in this regard. Since early 2020, Argentine companies are required by the Central Bank to refinance at least 60% of debt maturities at a minimum average term of two years, and therefore has only limited access to the official FX market to pay 40% of their debt principal maturing. This presents a constant risk for companies with too much debt maturing in the near term, because it forces them into a constant renegotiation with creditors who may ask for better terms to agree to refinance (therefore increasing cost of debt for companies) or reject refinancing altogether. If not succeeding in this process, companies risk a corporate default. If you want to know more about this regulations, you can find more information in the Central Bank's website here, or more extensively in Communication 'A' 7106. Back in 2020, this situation put YPF on the verge of a corporate default, when faced with big debt maturities while its revenue came crumbling down due to covid-19. YPF worked for months trying to reach an agreement with creditors to refinance 60% of that debt principal. In the end, YPF managed to swap 60% of its bonds for new longer ones and avoided the default, but just barely. If interested, you can read more on this here. So a 1.4x debt ratio looks great, and it is, but it's simply not enough. USD 7,000 million of gross debt is just too high for a company with this zip code. Let's take a look at YPF's principal debt amortization schedule. YPF's principal debt amortization (Company's presentation) Take a look at the graph above. As we can see we have about one billion of debt maturing next year, and another one billion maturing in 2024, followed by almost 1.5 billion in 2025. Remember, companies can't freely access the official FX exchange and are required to refinance 60% the principal debt amortization. This means we will find YPF having to work constantly on refinancing its debt for many years to come. Can we expect a great stock price performance if the market is constantly worried about this? What if it doesn't succeed to do so, or if Argentina's macro deteriorates just a little more to the point the company can't even access that 40% of so desperately needed dollars? What then? In this troubled context, we should be much better off being invested in a company with very low debt, manageable even in the worst-case scenarios. Let's try to end this item with a positive thought. In regard to YPF's debt situation, I personally believe the worst is already behind us. 2020 was a close call for the company and since then it's been working on improving its debt profile and has succeeded up to some point. But risk is still there and is worth mentioning it. Specially if Argentina keeps on this path, with each day running shorter on dollars having no other option than tightening capital controls even more. 2. Lawsuits: Maxus YPF is facing two ginormous international lawsuits. First, there's this USD 14 billion lawsuit in the United States. Yes, that is correct. Billion with a B. This lawsuit is for a higher amount than its entire EV or more than eight times its market cap. What on earth is all this about? In a nutshell, YPF was trying to go global in the late 90's and in 1995 decided to acquire US-based company Maxus Energy Corporation. Maxus was involved in an old conflict over environmental damages caused during the 1950s and 1960s - long before YPF acquired the company - when New Jersey’s Passaic River was polluted with pesticides and other dangerous chemicals. YPF either did not know about this or at least did not fully grasp the magnitude of the conflict. Either way, when realizing the conflict was escalating quickly, YPF allegedly decided to dismantle Maxus and filled it for bankruptcy. The lawsuit is divided into two parts, the first addressing the environmental damages and the second on Maxus' claims that YPF dismantled the company. In this lawsuit Maxus claims USD 750 million from YPF plus the transfer of USD 14 billion worth of environmental damages. 3. Another Lawsuit: Expropriation of YPF On April 16, 2012, former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner introduced a bill for the renationalization of YPF, in which the State would buy 51% of the outstanding shares. The bill was overwhelmingly approved by both houses of Congress, and was signed by the president on May 5. After some dispute with the majority shareholder, Repsol, an agreement was reached on November 27, 2013, whereby the latter would be compensated for a 51% stake in YPF with approximately USD 5 billion in 10-year corporate bonds. So as of today, YPF is primarily a state-owned company. According to YPF's bylaw, Argentina should have conducted a public tender offer after gaining control of the company, i.e. a public bid for stockholders to sell their stock. Among these stockholders were Petersen and Eton Park Capital. The public tender offer never happened, violating YPF's bylaw, which resulted in economic damage to these funds. Litigation finance firm Burford Capital bought the rights from Petersen and Eton to sue Argentina and YPF. This a lawsuit that can cost up to USD 20,000 million. Here's a Twitter thread from @SebastianMaril explaining six possible scenarios for this lawsuit. Feel free to translate it to English if needed. 4. YPF is a state-owned company As we've just discussed, Argentina's State owns 51% of YPF's shares and therefore controls the company. YPF is a state-owned company. The main consequence of this is that a state-owned company may not have profitability as its number one priority, i.e. it may not necessarily allocate its cash on those investments that will return the most to its shareholders as we normally would expect from a company, but may rather follow a political or a 'common good of the country' agenda. Maybe it's not the right time to invest in some sector, but will do it anyway because it's 'in the country's best interest'. Or maybe the company enjoys a dominant position in some other sector that may allow it to raise prices and therefore profits (almost) at will but chooses not to simply because it's not in the country's or in the politicians' best interest. Or maybe every four years, when there's a new administration in office, the board of directors is modified and the company swifts priorities, modifying its long-term objectives. This is exactly what happens with YPF. As we've seen before, YPF is a dominant player in the downstream sector through its more than 1,600 gas stations, so it could raise prices at will. But this is not the case. On the contrary, this is usually used as a political tool, raising prices behind inflation when needed in a ridiculous attempt to contain inflation numbers (has this ever worked?) or even freezing prices completely for several months when elections are near. This is certainly not in the shareholder's best interest. I want to give you some concrete examples that show you just how bad politics can affect the company. In February 2019, under Mauricio Macri's administration, YPF signed a 10-year contract with Belgium-based shipowner Exmar for a gas liquefaction barge that would allow the company to export LNG for the first time in the country's history. A few months later, YPF concluded the first shipment of 25,000 m3 of LNG to Europe. Undoubtedly, a milestone for the company and the country. In 2020, only 18 months after signing the contract, and now with a new administration in office, this time Peronist Alberto Fernández, YPF decides to terminate that contract. According to different political sources, YPF lost USD 145 million during those 18 months of operation and that's why it should be called off. Regardless of this is true or not, YPF had to compensate Exmar with USD 150 million for the early redemption of the contract. You can read more on this here. According to those same sources, YPF needed to sell LNG at USD 10 per MBTU or higher to be profitable, and that wasn't happening. Today, only two years later, Argentina imports LNG at a price of USD 40 to 50 per MBTU. This simple example shows us two things. First, how a change in the political party in power can swift rapidly the objectives of the company and the financial impact that can have. Also, it shows us lack of vision and planification. I mean, calling that contract off only a few months before a commodities boom. Wow. I can give you literally dozens of these examples, but I'll go ahead with just one more in lieu of briefness. While I was writing this article, YPF's CEO, Sergio Affronti, resigned his post after only two years in office, due to differences with President of the company, Pablo Gonzalez. Pablo Gonzalez has been President of YPF for just a little over a year now. Before him, Guillermo Nielsen had been President of the company also for just a little over a year. Question: can a company perform well if its top personnel is constantly being removed and replaced? I don't think so. Or at least we can agree that situation isn't optimal. 5. A (Very) Poor Dividend Policy If you've read some of my previous articles, you've then come across many local companies probably equally cheap or even cheaper than YPF and with massive dividend policies. Cablevisión Holding (CVHSY), for instance, could potentially return up to 30% a year in dividends while also being a ten-bagger, while other covered companies such as Central Puerto (CEPU), Loma Negra (LOMA) all stand up in the dividends double digits zone. YPF, on the other hand, has a very, very, poor dividend policy. Let's take a look at dividends distributed to shareholders in the last ten years. YPF dividends in the last ten years (Seeking Alpha) This is an average of about USD 0.11 per share a year, though the company has not distributed dividends since 2019. If we assume this will be the case from here on, then at current prices this would be a 3.4% div yield. This is disappointing considering what other stocks in this very same market can offer. And we reach this div yield considering current all-time lows prices. If we consider instead the stock price when those dividends were paid, we are then talking about a dividend yield of less than 0.5%. And then again, we haven't received dividends in the last three years. Let's take a look at dividends in the last 30 years. YPF dividends since 1994 (Seeking Alpha) As can be seen in the graph above, dividends were massive between 2000 and 2012, under Repsol management. In fact, just in 2008 the company distributed almost USD 5.5 per ADR in dividends. That's 170% today's stock price. What the heck happened after 2012? Renationalization happened. Since then, dividends have been even lower than those between 1994 and 2001, when the average dividend was about USD 0.9 per ADR. That would be a 30% div yield at current prices. And we are not even adjusting by inflation here. This tells us that YPF has been capable of generating tons of cash in the past (and actually is as of today), but that cash has not been going to the shareholder's pockets since 2012, i.e., since Argentinian gov't took over the company. The official explanation is that under control of the State, the company chooses to reinvest basically all of its profit in the business instead of paying back its shareholders. That's fair. It's something that can be done and is done by some of its peer as well. However, that being the case, shareholders should've benefited from a massive increase in the stock's price, something that has not happened. On the contrary, stock is -90% down from its 2012 price. That's not promising at all... We will talk more about the stock performance later on. Whether we want to admit it or not, truth is that is a common practice for the Argentine gov't to oppose dividend payments, and not just in the energy sector. It does so in other companies where it holds a stake in, specially through state-controlled pension fund Fondo de Garantía de Sustentabilidad. So unless this policy changes somewhen in the future (which to be honest I don't see happening any time soon), then we can't expect to receive significant dividends from YPF. Logic dictates that we should, since that would benefit the State as well that's so needed of dollars, but at least until now politics overtakes logic in this regard. Ok, so YPF has a poor dividend policy. No big deal. Other companies choose also not to distribute dividends in cash (Pampa Energía, one of my favorite companies in the local market being one of them). But those companies usually return capital to its shareholders through other means, either by performing aggressive stock buybacks programs or experiencing a great stock price performance, or more typically a combination of both. 6. No Buybacks, Seriously? Ok, so YPF has a poor dividend policy. But maybe the company is active in the open market doing buybacks which, as we all know, is a more tax-effective way of returning capital to shareholders, increasing the Earnings Per Share which in turn should boost the share price in the long run. At current prices an aggressive stock buyback program is certainly a no-brainer. Well, turns out YPF has no active stock buyback program whatsoever at the moment. Seriously, why? In fact, the last time that I recall the company having a buyback program was back in 2020, as a strategy not really aimed at benefiting its shareholders, but as a stock compensation program for its directors.Seeking Alpha • Mar 07
YPF Strong Comeback Things Are Changing For Argentina
YPF multiples -Argentina largest company- make the stock look dirty cheap: 0.44x 2021 EBITDA and 2.9x fwd 2022 P/E despite higher costs. YPF shows seven consecutive quarters of solid FCF, improved capital structure and encouraging production guidance which do not match with YPF stock price performance. YPF repaid $882m debt in 2021. Net Debt/EBITDA went down to 1.6x, lowest in six years. Upstream is showing encouraging prices. Downstream volumes were very strong. YPF showed a remarkable growth in reserves of 24% to 1.1 billion BOE as of YE 2021 and historical high RRR of 2.3x. With current commodity boom, IMF debt deal and Argentina growing, forgotten YPF might be back to investors radar. And yes, the stocks is about 94% below 2005 all time high.Shareholder Returns
| YPF | US Oil and Gas | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 10.5% | -5.5% | 1.6% |
| 1Y | 49.8% | 30.3% | 28.5% |
Return vs Industry: YPF exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 30.3% over the past year.
Return vs Market: YPF exceeded the US Market which returned 28.5% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| YPF volatility | |
|---|---|
| YPF Average Weekly Movement | 5.9% |
| Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement | 6.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.8% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.0% |
Stable Share Price: YPF has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: YPF's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1977 | n/a | Horacio Marin | www.ypf.com |
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon fields and production of crude oil and natural gas; the refining, transportation and commercialization of refined products; the production, transportation, and commercialization of petrochemical products; the transportation and commercialization of crude oil; and the commercialization of specialties for the agribusiness industry, and of grains and their by-products.
YPF Sociedad Anónima Fundamentals Summary
| YPF fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$21.87b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$327.59m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$17.97b |
1.2x
P/S Ratio-66.8x
P/E RatioIs YPF overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| YPF income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | AR$25.33t |
| Cost of Revenue | AR$17.74t |
| Gross Profit | AR$7.59t |
| Other Expenses | AR$8.05t |
| Earnings | -AR$461.57b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -1.17k |
| Gross Margin | 29.96% |
| Net Profit Margin | -1.82% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 87.0% |
How did YPF perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/31 13:55 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/29 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
YPF Sociedad Anónima is covered by 18 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Matias Cattaruzzi | AdCap Securities Argentina S.A. |
| Leonardo Marcondes | BofA Global Research |
| Vicente Falanga Neto | Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários |