Recent Insider Transactions • Jun 29
Chairman of TXO Partners GP recently bought US$1.3m worth of stock On the 23rd of June, Bob Simpson bought around 100k shares on-market at roughly US$12.61 per share. This transaction amounted to 1.1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger purchase worth US$9.5m. Bob has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of US$31m worth in shares. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 26
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 26% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from US$454.0m to US$337.8m. Forecast loss of -US$0.90, down from profit of US$0.61 per share profit previously. Oil and Gas industry in the US expected to see average net income growth of 49% next year. Consensus price target down from US$21.00 to US$20.33. Share price was steady at US$12.51 over the past week. New Risk • Jun 24
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next year. Trailing 12-month net loss: US$98m Forecast net loss in 1 year: US$30m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-US$216m). Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable next year (US$30m net loss next year). Recent Insider Transactions • May 13
Chairman of TXO Partners GP recently bought US$9.5m worth of stock On the 11th of May, Bob Simpson bought around 750k shares on-market at roughly US$12.61 per share. This transaction amounted to 11% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Bob's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Declared Dividend • May 08
First quarter dividend of US$0.36 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.36. Ex-date: 15th May 2026 Payment date: 22nd May 2026 Dividend yield will be 12%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months and having no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has decreased over the past 36 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. Reported Earnings • May 06
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: US$1.35 loss per share (down from US$0.059 profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue: US$28.3m (down 67% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: US$74.3m (down US$76.8m from profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 74%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 36% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 17% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • May 06
TXO Partners, L.P Declares A Distribution on Common Unit for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2026, Payable on May 22, 2026 TXO Partners, L.P announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a distribution of $0.36 per common unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The quarterly distribution will be paid on May 22, 2026, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on May 15, 2026. New Risk • May 06
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 29% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Earnings have declined by 29% per year over the past 5 years. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (34% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-US$217m). Price Target Changed • Mar 19
Price target increased by 8.8% to US$20.67 Up from US$19.00, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 65% above last closing price of US$12.56. Stock is down 37% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$1.07 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$0.43 last year. Declared Dividend • Mar 02
Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.30 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.30. Ex-date: 10th March 2026 Payment date: 17th March 2026 Dividend yield will be 14%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months and having no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has decreased over the past 36 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. New Risk • Feb 28
New minor risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow. Free cash flow: -US$217m This is considered a minor risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Dividend per share is over 5x earnings per share. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (34% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-US$217m). Reported Earnings • Feb 28
Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2025 results: US$0.43 loss per share (down from US$0.66 profit in FY 2024). Revenue: US$401.0m (up 42% from FY 2024). Net loss: US$21.6m (down 192% from profit in FY 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.9% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 32% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 19% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Feb 27
TXO Partners, L.P. Declares Fourth Quarter 2025 Distribution, Payable on March 17, 2026 TXO Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a distribution of $0.30 per common unit for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The quarterly distribution will be paid on March 17, 2026, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on March 10, 2026. Price Target Changed • Jan 26
Price target decreased by 8.1% to US$19.00 Down from US$20.67, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 66% above last closing price of US$11.45. Stock is down 40% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.30 for next year compared to US$0.66 last year. New Risk • Nov 24
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 11% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Dividend per share is over 5x earnings per share. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 11% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (24% accrual ratio). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (34% increase in shares outstanding). Declared Dividend • Nov 07
Third quarter dividend of US$0.35 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.35. Ex-date: 14th November 2025 Payment date: 21st November 2025 Dividend yield will be 15%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (dividend approximately 6x earnings) and the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 9.8% per year over the past 2 years and payments have been stable during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 636% to bring the payout ratio under control. However, EPS is expected to decline by 41% over the next 2 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Announcement • Nov 07
TXO Partners, L.P. Declares Distribution for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2025, Payable on November 21, 2025 TXO Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a distribution of $0.35 per common unit for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The quarterly distribution will be paid on November 21, 2025, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on November 14, 2025. Reported Earnings • Nov 06
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.079 (up from US$0.005 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$100.9m (up 47% from 3Q 2024). Net income: US$4.35m (up US$4.15m from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.3% (up from 0.3% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.2% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 08
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 60% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from US$387.8m to US$381.4m. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.30 per share to US$0.12 per share. Net income forecast to grow 82% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the US. Consensus price target of US$21.67 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at US$14.22 over the past week. Announcement • Oct 07
TXO Partners, L.P. Provides Distribution Guidance for the Year 2025 TXO Partners, L.P. provided distribution guidance for the year 2025. For the year, the company currently expect to distribute $0.35 to $0.40 per quarter to unitholders over the remainder of 2025. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 10
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 36% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from US$372.6m to US$387.8m. EPS estimate increased from US$0.22 to US$0.30 per share. Net income forecast to grow 103% next year vs 21% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the US. Consensus price target down from US$22.33 to US$21.67. Share price was steady at US$13.75 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Aug 08
Second quarter dividend of US$0.45 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.45. Ex-date: 15th August 2025 Payment date: 22nd August 2025 Dividend yield will be 15%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (dividend approximately 7x earnings) and the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 9.8% per year over the past 2 years and payments have been stable during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 735% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 101% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Reported Earnings • Aug 06
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: US$0.003 loss per share (vs US$0.09 profit in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: US$0.003 loss per share (down from US$0.09 profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$89.9m (up 57% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: US$135.0k (down 105% from profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.7% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Announcement • Aug 06
TXO Partners, L.P. Declares Second Quarter 2025 Distribution for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2025, Payable on August 22, 2025 TXO Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a distribution of $0.45 per common unit for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. The quarterly distribution will be paid on August 22, 2025, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on August 15, 2025. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 85% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from US$391.1m to US$372.6m. EPS estimate also fell from US$1.48 per share to US$0.22 per share. Net income forecast to grow 88% next year vs 8.4% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the US. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$22.67. Share price rose 3.4% to US$15.43 over the past week. Recent Insider Transactions • May 22
Independent Director of TXO Partners GP recently bought US$153k worth of stock On the 19th of May, William Adams bought around 10k shares on-market at roughly US$15.26 per share. This transaction amounted to 11% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought US$22m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • May 18
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 18%, EPS downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast increased from US$330.8m to US$391.1m. EPS estimate fell from US$1.68 to US$1.48. Net income forecast to grow 342% next year vs 8.1% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the US. Consensus price target up from US$21.67 to US$22.33. Share price fell 11% to US$15.20 over the past week. Declared Dividend • May 05
First quarter dividend of US$0.61 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.61. Ex-date: 16th May 2025 Payment date: 23rd May 2025 Dividend yield will be 14%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (dividend approximately 5x earnings) and the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 9.8% per year over the past 2 years and payments have been stable during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 553% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 63% over the next year, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Reported Earnings • May 02
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.059 (down from US$0.33 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: US$84.3m (up 25% from 1Q 2024). Net income: US$2.42m (down 77% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 2.9% (down from 15% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 87%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 3.2% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Announcement • May 02
TXO Partners, L.P. Declares Distribution for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2025, Payable on May 23, 2025 TXO Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a distribution of $0.61 per common unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2025. The quarterly distribution will be paid on May 23, 2025, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on May 16, 2025. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 22
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 29% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from US$339.8m to US$326.1m. EPS estimate also fell from US$2.36 per share to US$1.68 per share. Net income forecast to grow 160% next year vs 9.1% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the US. Consensus price target down from US$24.50 to US$22.50. Share price was steady at US$16.92 over the past week. Board Change • Apr 08
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 2 were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Director of TXO Partners GP, LLC Bill Adams was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Price Target Changed • Apr 06
Price target decreased by 9.3% to US$24.50 Down from US$27.00, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 44% above last closing price of US$17.03. Stock is down 6.8% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$2.36 for next year compared to US$0.66 last year. Declared Dividend • Mar 07
Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.61 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.61. Ex-date: 14th March 2025 Payment date: 21st March 2025 Dividend yield will be 12%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months and having no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 2.0% per year over the past 2 years and payments have been stable during that time. Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Full year 2024 earnings released Full year 2024 results: Net income: (up US$104.0m from FY 2023). New Risk • Mar 05
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 29% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Earnings have declined by 29% per year over the past 5 years. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (33% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-US$192m). Announcement • Mar 05
TXO Partners, L.P. Declares Fourth Quarter 2024 Distribution, Payable on March 21, 2025 TXO Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a distribution of $0.61 per common unit for the quarter ended December 31, 2024. The quarterly distribution will be paid on March 21, 2025, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on March 14, 2025. New Risk • Jan 23
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -US$192m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-US$192m free cash flow). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (33% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • Jan 16
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 33% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (33% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-US$192m). Recent Insider Transactions • Jan 05
Independent Director of TXO Energy GP recently bought US$237k worth of stock On the 30th of December, William Adams bought around 14k shares on-market at roughly US$16.93 per share. This transaction amounted to 19% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger purchase from another insider worth US$1.9m. Insiders have collectively bought US$21m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 20
EVP & Director recently bought US$1.9m worth of stock On the 19th of December, Keith Hutton bought around 120k shares on-market at roughly US$15.88 per share. This transaction amounted to 3.0% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought US$21m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. New Risk • Nov 12
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 29% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Earnings have declined by 29% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-US$192m). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (33% increase in shares outstanding). Declared Dividend • Nov 08
Third quarter dividend of US$0.58 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.58. Ex-date: 15th November 2024 Payment date: 22nd November 2024 Dividend yield will be 13%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months and having no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The company is yet to establish a track record of dividend growth or stability as it hasn't paid a regular dividend for at least 2 years. Reported Earnings • Nov 06
Third quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.005 (down from US$0.28 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$68.7m (down 1.6% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$203.0k (down 98% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.3% (down from 12% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 92%. Revenue is forecast to grow 23% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Announcement • Nov 06
TXO Partners, L.P. Declares Distribution for the Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2024, Payable on November 22, 2024 TXO Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a distribution of $0.58 per common unit for the quarter ended September 30, 2024. The quarterly distribution will be paid on November 22, 2024, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on November 15, 2024. Price Target Changed • Oct 21
Price target decreased by 11% to US$25.50 Down from US$28.50, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 35% above last closing price of US$18.89. Stock is down 3.8% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.93 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$3.44 last year. Declared Dividend • Aug 09
Second quarter dividend of US$0.57 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.57. Ex-date: 20th August 2024 Payment date: 27th August 2024 Dividend yield will be 11%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. The dividend is also not covered by cash flows (238% cash payout ratio). The company is yet to establish a track record of dividend growth or stability as it hasn't paid a regular dividend for at least 2 years. Reported Earnings • Aug 08
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.09 (up from US$0.083 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$57.3m (down 5.2% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$2.81m (up US$5.35m from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.9% (up from net loss in 2Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 10%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 44%. Revenue is forecast to grow 23% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 1.8% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Announcement • Aug 07
Txo Partners, L.P. Declares A Distribution for the Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2024, Payable on August 27, 2024 TXO Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a distribution of $0.57 per common unit for the quarter ended June 30, 2024. The quarterly distribution will be paid on August 27, 2024, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on August 20, 2024. Recent Insider Transactions • Jun 30
Board Member recently bought US$18m worth of stock On the 28th of June, Keith Hutton bought around 878k shares on-market at roughly US$20.00 per share. This transaction amounted to 28% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought US$28m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Announcement • Jun 28
TXO Partners, L.P. has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of $130 million. TXO Partners, L.P. has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of $130 million.
Security Name: Common Units
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 6,500,000
Price\Range: $20
Discount Per Security: $1 New Risk • Jun 27
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 22% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Cash payout ratio: 161% Minor Risks Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (22% increase in shares outstanding). Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (US$212k sold). Announcement • Jun 27
TXO Partners, L.P. has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering. TXO Partners, L.P. has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering.
Security Name: Common Units
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 5,000,000 Recent Insider Transactions • May 29
Independent Director of TXO Energy GP recently sold US$212k worth of stock On the 24th of May, John King sold around 10k shares on-market at roughly US$21.24 per share. This transaction amounted to 1.3% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought US$8.1m more than they sold in the last 12 months. Declared Dividend • May 10
First quarter dividend increased to US$0.65 Dividend of US$0.65 is 30% higher than last year. Ex-date: 17th May 2024 Payment date: 29th May 2024 Dividend yield will be 11%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. The dividend is also not covered by cash flows (132% cash payout ratio). The company is yet to establish a track record of dividend growth or stability as it hasn't paid a regular dividend for at least 2 years. Reported Earnings • May 08
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.33 (down from US$2.91 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$67.4m (down 57% from 1Q 2023). Net income: US$10.3m (down 88% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 15% (down from 53% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 22%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Announcement • May 08
Txo Partners, L.P. Declares a Distribution for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2024, Payable on May 29, 2024 TXO Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a distribution of $0.65 per common unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2024. The quarterly distribution will be paid on May 29, 2024, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on May 20, 2024. Price Target Changed • Apr 23
Price target increased by 7.3% to US$29.33 Up from US$27.33, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 58% above last closing price of US$18.53. Stock is down 16% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$1.20 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$3.44 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 13
President of Business Operations recently sold US$80k worth of stock On the 8th of March, Brent Clum sold around 4k shares on-market at roughly US$18.54 per share. This transaction amounted to 1.5% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Brent's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2023 results: US$3.44 loss per share (further deteriorated from US$0.25 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: US$380.7m (up 55% from FY 2022). Net loss: US$104.0m (loss widened US$96.3m from FY 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is expected to decline by 13% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to grow by 1.8%. Announcement • Mar 06
TXO Partners L.P. Declares Distribution for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2023, Payable on March 28, 2024 TXO Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a distribution of $0.58 per common unit for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The quarterly distribution will be paid on March 28, 2024, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on March 15, 2024. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 17
Key Executive recently bought US$4.9m worth of stock On the 10th of November, Bob Simpson bought around 277k shares on-market at roughly US$17.60 per share. This transaction amounted to 6.7% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Bob's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.28. Revenue: US$69.9m (down 42% from 3Q 2022). Net income: US$8.48m (down 85% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 12% (down from 46% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 1.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to remain flat. Announcement • Nov 09
Txo Partners, L.P Declares Distribution for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2023, Payable on November 27, 2023 TXO Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared a distribution of $0.52 per common unit for the quarter ended September 30, 2023. The quarterly distribution will be paid on November 27, 2023, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on November 17, 2023. Reported Earnings • Aug 09
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: US$0.083 loss per share. Revenue: US$60.5m (down 35% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: US$2.55m (down 110% from profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 8.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is expected to fall by 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 2.6% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Announcement • Aug 09
TXO Partners L.P. Declares Distribution for the Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2023, Payable on August 25, 2023 TXO Partners L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of its general partner declared company's second quarter distribution of $0.48 per common unit for quarter ended June 30, 2023. The quarterly distribution will be paid on August 25, 2023, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on August 18, 2023. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 25
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 106% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$339.0m to US$361.9m. EPS estimate increased from US$1.80 to US$3.70 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 34% next year vs 27% decline forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the US. Consensus price target down from US$31.00 to US$29.67. Share price rose 2.4% to US$21.50 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 11
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$2.91. Net income: US$83.8m (up US$149.4m from 1Q 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 113%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates significantly. Revenue is expected to fall by 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 3.9% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Announcement • May 10
TXO Partners, L.P. Declares First Quarterly Distribution for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2023, Payable on May 30, 2023 TXO Partners, L.P. declared first quarterly distribution of $0.50 per common unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2023. The quarterly distribution will be paid on May 30, 2023 to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on May 22, 2023. In accordance with the terms of TXO's partnership agreement, the amount of the distribution was prorated for the period from January 31, 2023 (the closing date of TXO's initial public offering) through March 31, 2023, based on the actual length of that period. Announcement • Feb 02
TXO Energy Partners, L.P. Announces Board Appointments TXO Energy Partners, L.P. announced that effective January 31, 2023, Phillip R. Kevil and William (“Bill”) H. Adams III were appointed as members of the Board. Mr. Kevil was appointed as a member of the Board’s Audit Committee, Conflicts Committee and Compensation Committee. Mr. Adams was also appointed as a member of the Board’s Audit Committee, Conflicts Committee and Compensation Committee, and will serve as the chair of the Board’s Compensation Committee. Announcement • Jan 28
TXO Energy Partners, L.P. has completed an IPO in the amount of $100 million. TXO Energy Partners, L.P. has completed an IPO in the amount of $100 million.
Security Name: Common Units
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 5,000,000
Price\Range: $20
Discount Per Security: $0.1575
Security Features: LP/LLC Units