SM Energy (SM) Valuation Check After Steep 1-Year Share Price Slide

SM Energy (SM) has been sliding lately, with the stock down roughly 5% over the past week and almost 50% over the past year. Let us unpack what the market might be missing.

See our latest analysis for SM Energy.

That slide reflects a sharp shift in sentiment, with a 90 day share price return of about minus 27 percent and a 1 year total shareholder return of roughly minus 48 percent, despite a still impressive 5 year total shareholder return above 200 percent. This suggests long term value but fading momentum in the near term.

If recent volatility in SM Energy has you rethinking your energy exposure, this might be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other compelling ideas.

With shares now trading at a steep discount to analyst targets despite solid revenue and profit growth, the key question is whether SM Energy is a mispriced value play or whether the market is correctly discounting its future.

Most Popular Narrative: 44.1% Undervalued

With SM Energy last closing at 18.72 dollars versus a narrative fair value of 33.50 dollars, the valuation framework implies substantial upside if assumptions hold.

The company's deep technical expertise and growing, repeatable drilling inventory, especially in underappreciated or recently acquired assets (like Uinta), provides a runway for sustained production and reserve growth, directly benefiting long term revenue and the company's ability to generate robust free cash flow through commodity cycles.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady revenue growth, shifting profit margins, and a re rated earnings multiple can still justify a sharply higher price tag? Unpack the full blueprint behind this fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $33.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, concentrated exposure to a few shale basins and potential Uinta takeaway bottlenecks could quickly erode margins and challenge the bullish valuation case.

Find out about the key risks to this SM Energy narrative.

Build Your Own SM Energy Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can quickly build a personalized view in under three minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your SM Energy research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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