Noble (NE) Valuation: Gauging Opportunity After Q3 Earnings Dip and Updated 2025 Guidance

Noble (NE) just released its third-quarter numbers, showing a drop in net income and earnings per share from last year. Revenues held steady and have grown over the past nine months. Alongside these results, management narrowed full-year revenue guidance and confirmed another quarterly dividend, giving investors fresh data to consider regarding the stock’s outlook and returns.

See our latest analysis for Noble.

Despite Noble’s updated revenue guidance and dividend news, recent market action has been mixed. The stock’s 1-day share price return of 1.6% signals a bump, capping a solid 9.5% gain over the past month. However, the 1-year total shareholder return remains negative at -12.5%, reflecting lingering investor caution even as near-term momentum appears to be building again.

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After a challenging year and trimmed guidance, is Noble now trading at a bargain, or are investors already factoring in any rebound in earnings and future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 13% Undervalued

With the most followed narrative assigning Noble a fair value of $33.60, the stock's last close at $29.23 suggests room for upside. Market watchers are comparing this estimate to fresh financials and planning their next move.

Large offshore project pipelines in South America (notably Brazil), West Africa, and other regions are set to drive a rebound in ultra-deepwater drilling activity by late 2026 or 2027 due to global energy demand growth. This is expected to support higher rig utilization and dayrates, which may enhance Noble's future revenue and EBITDA.

Read the complete narrative.

What could be fueling this outlook? The key factors are future profit margins, revenue expansion, and a projected profit multiple rarely seen in this sector. Want to see which financial leap powers this narrative's price target? Only the full story reveals the numbers and assumptions that make or break Noble’s appeal.

Result: Fair Value of $33.60 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, near-term softness in offshore drilling demand and ongoing volatility in oil prices could still undermine Noble’s expected revenue and margin improvement.

Find out about the key risks to this Noble narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Signal Caution

Switching from fair value estimates to current market multiples, Noble trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.5x. This is steeper than the US Energy Services industry average of 16.3x, and higher than the fair ratio of 19.9x. While this could suggest investors see more upside ahead, it also means the stock is exposed to sharper corrections if growth fails to materialize. Are the markets being too optimistic, or could Noble outperform these already-priced-in expectations?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Noble Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive into the numbers on your own terms, you can build a fresh view in just a few minutes, Do it your way

A great starting point for your Noble research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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