Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For Dorian LPG Ltd. (NYSE:LPG) After Its Latest Results

It's been a good week for Dorian LPG Ltd. (NYSE:LPG) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 5.3% to US$50.61. DorianG reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$559m and statutory earnings per share of US$7.60, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on DorianG after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for DorianG

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering DorianG, is for revenues of US$465.6m in 2025. This implies an uncomfortable 17% reduction in DorianG's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 32% to US$5.18 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$493.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.07 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

The average price target climbed 7.3% to US$44.60despite the reduced earnings forecasts, suggesting that this earnings impact could be a positive for the stock, once it passes. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values DorianG at US$50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$34.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the DorianG's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 17% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - DorianG is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for DorianG. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for DorianG going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with DorianG (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.