Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
What Is Kinder Morgan's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Kinder Morgan had US$32.1b in debt in December 2024; about the same as the year before. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.
How Strong Is Kinder Morgan's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Kinder Morgan had liabilities of US$5.10b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$34.4b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$93.0m in cash and US$1.51b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$37.9b.
This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of US$60.5b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
View our latest analysis for Kinder Morgan
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
While we wouldn't worry about Kinder Morgan's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.8, we think its super-low interest cover of 2.4 times is a sign of high leverage. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Notably, Kinder Morgan's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year, which isn't ideal given the debt load. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Kinder Morgan's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Kinder Morgan recorded free cash flow worth 64% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
Both Kinder Morgan's interest cover and its net debt to EBITDA were discouraging. But its not so bad at converting EBIT to free cash flow. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Kinder Morgan is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Kinder Morgan (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Kinder Morgan might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:KMI
Kinder Morgan
Operates as an energy infrastructure company primarily in North America.
Proven track record low.
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