GeoPark Limited Just Missed EPS By 23%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in GeoPark Limited (NYSE:GPRK) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.7% to close at US$7.98 following the release of its quarterly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$160m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 23% to hit US$0.48 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on GeoPark after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for GeoPark

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from GeoPark's four analysts is for revenues of US$850.0m in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 19% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 41% to US$2.95. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$840.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.86 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on GeoPark's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$15.57, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic GeoPark analyst has a price target of US$26.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$11.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting GeoPark's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 15% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that GeoPark is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards GeoPark following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for GeoPark going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for GeoPark you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.