Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Chevron Corporation's (NYSE:CVX) First-Quarter Report

It's been a good week for Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.7% to US$166. Chevron missed revenue estimates by 3.9%, coming in atUS$49b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.97 beat expectations, coming in 4.0% ahead of analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Chevron

Following last week's earnings report, Chevron's 17 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$196.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 16% to US$12.75. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$202.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.20 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$182 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Chevron at US$204 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$148. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Chevron's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Compare this to the 361 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Chevron's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Chevron going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Chevron you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.