ConocoPhillips (COP): Exploring the Current Valuation as Shares Lose Momentum in 2024

ConocoPhillips (COP) shares have had a rough stretch, with the stock slipping about 1% over the past day and dropping 3% in the past week. Investors are watching for signs of a turnaround, especially given its longer-term performance.

See our latest analysis for ConocoPhillips.

After a steady climb in recent years, ConocoPhillips shares have lost momentum in 2024 as risk perceptions shift. A 1-year total shareholder return of -16% highlights fading enthusiasm despite robust long-term gains.

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With shares trading well below analyst targets, is ConocoPhillips now undervalued and presenting a potential buying opportunity, or is the market accurately pricing in what the future could hold for this energy giant?

Most Popular Narrative: 23.7% Undervalued

The narrative suggests ConocoPhillips could be worth far more than its last close, positioning the current share price as a potential bargain for those who buy into the methodology. But what exactly underpins this outlook?

The company's expanding LNG portfolio and progress on large-scale liquefaction projects (notably in Qatar, Port Arthur, and Willow) are set to capture significant market share from robust global gas demand, especially as natural gas solidifies its role as a "transition fuel." These projects are expected to drive a substantial free cash flow inflection and topline revenue expansion through 2029.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious which global initiatives and projected financial leaps could elevate this value? The forecast relies on ambitious operational transformation and future profits that break the sector mold. Unlock the key levers behind the narrative's bold upside to see what is fueling this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $113.54 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, investors should note that execution delays and ongoing volatility in oil prices could dampen future returns. These factors pose real challenges for this optimistic scenario.

Find out about the key risks to this ConocoPhillips narrative.

Build Your Own ConocoPhillips Narrative

If this perspective does not resonate or you prefer to chart your own course, you can dive into the numbers and craft your own insight in under three minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your ConocoPhillips research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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