Why Antero Resources (AR) Is Down 5.4% After Q3 Earnings Miss Analyst Estimates and Buybacks Continue

• Antero Resources reported third-quarter 2025 results, posting a swing to net income of US$76.18 million and revenue of US$1,213.99 million, alongside continued share repurchases totaling US$51.36 million for the quarter.
• Despite improved profitability and ongoing buybacks, the company’s adjusted earnings per share fell short of analyst expectations, highlighting the challenges of matching market forecasts even amid operational progress.
• With Antero’s third-quarter adjusted earnings missing Wall Street estimates, we explore how this shapes the company’s investment narrative going forward.

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Antero Resources Investment Narrative Recap

Owning shares of Antero Resources means believing in the company’s ability to leverage growing global demand for US natural gas and NGL exports, while managing persistent industry price volatility. The recent third-quarter results, posting a return to profitability, but missing adjusted earnings expectations, do not significantly impact the short-term catalyst centered on increasing LNG export demand, though price and margin risks tied to market volatility remain front and center for investors.

Among the latest company updates, Antero’s ongoing share buyback activity stands out, with US$51.36 million worth of shares repurchased last quarter. This is particularly relevant as it affects earnings per share and signals continued shareholder return even as short-term profit measures fluctuate with gas prices and basis differentials.

However, investors should also weigh the persistent risk of price volatility driven by regional supply dynamics, as even strong operational performance can quickly be overshadowed if...

Read the full narrative on Antero Resources (it's free!)

Antero Resources is projected to reach $6.1 billion in revenue and $745.2 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes a 7.9% annual revenue growth rate and a $266.3 million increase in earnings from $478.9 million today.

Uncover how Antero Resources' forecasts yield a $42.62 fair value, a 38% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$29.00 to US$42.62, reflecting broad differences in investor outlook. With volatile natural gas prices top of mind, you can explore these varied perspectives to see how others balance optimism and caution.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Antero Resources - why the stock might be worth as much as 38% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Antero Resources Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Antero Resources research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Antero Resources research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Antero Resources' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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