The subdued market reaction suggests that OPAL Fuels Inc.'s (NASDAQ:OPAL) recent earnings didn't contain any surprises. Our analysis suggests that along with soft profit numbers, investors should be aware of some other underlying weaknesses in the numbers.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
To properly understand OPAL Fuels' profit results, we need to consider the US$2.3m expense attributed to unusual items. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. OPAL Fuels took a rather significant hit from unusual items in the year to June 2025. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit look worse than its underlying earnings power.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
An Unusual Tax Situation
Just as we noted the unusual items, we must inform you that OPAL Fuels received a tax benefit which contributed US$31m to the bottom line. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. Assuming the tax benefit is not repeated every year, we could see its profitability drop noticeably, all else being equal. So while we think it's great to receive a tax benefit, it does tend to imply an increased risk that the statutory profit overstates the sustainable earnings power of the business.
Our Take On OPAL Fuels' Profit Performance
In the last year OPAL Fuels received a tax benefit, which boosted its profit in a way that might not be much more sustainable than turning prime farmland into gas fields. Having said that, it also had a unusual item reducing its profit. Based on these factors, we think it's very unlikely that OPAL Fuels' statutory profits make it seem much weaker than it is. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. When we did our research, we found 4 warning signs for OPAL Fuels (1 is concerning!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if OPAL Fuels might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.