NextDecade (NEXT) Faces A Valuation Test, Is It Still 35% Undervalued?

NextDecade (NEXT) has drawn attention after recent trading, with the stock closing at US$6.14 on 28 July 2026. The move comes as investors weigh its focus on liquefied natural gas and carbon capture development.

See our latest analysis for NextDecade.

Recent trading has been choppy for NextDecade, with the share price down 4.58% on the day and the 30 day share price return down 17.69%, even though the year to date share price return is up 14.13%. Over a longer horizon, total shareholder return has declined 46.28% over the past year, but remains positive over three and five years. This indicates that recent momentum has faded compared with earlier gains.

If you are looking beyond NextDecade in the energy and infrastructure theme, this could be a good moment to review 34 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

NextDecade is working on large liquefied natural gas and carbon capture projects, yet its share price has pulled back sharply in recent weeks. Does that recent slide leave the stock looking undervalued or still expensive on today’s numbers?

Most Popular Narrative: 34.7% Undervalued

Based on the most followed narrative, NextDecade's fair value of $9.40 sits well above the latest close at $6.14, which puts a spotlight on the assumptions behind that gap.

Early cargo sales of over 175 trillion BTUs at expected margins of more than US$3 per MMBtu and the company’s projection that approximately 3,800 TBtus of early LNG volumes could generate US$1.2b to US$2b of distributable cash flow provide a defined path to use near term cash inflows to reduce term loans and corporate level leverage, which can support future net income.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that potential cash flow surge for NextDecade? The narrative focuses on steep revenue ramp up, margin shifts and a valuation multiple that is well below typical sector levels. It examines how those moving parts combine to reach a higher fair value than today’s share price.

The most widely followed narrative uses a discount rate of 11.59% and links the $9.40 fair value to very large forecast revenue growth and a future profit margin that aligns with broader US oil and gas peers. It also applies a moderate P/E multiple to those future earnings rather than a premium, despite the scale of the Rio Grande LNG project and the projected uplift in distributable cash flow as additional liquefaction trains and ownership step ups come into play.

Result: Fair Value of $9.40 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the bullish narrative around NextDecade can quickly shift if Rio Grande LNG faces construction delays or if high project debt keeps leverage above the 3 to 3.5x target.

Find out about the key risks to this NextDecade narrative.

Next Steps

With sentiment around NextDecade clearly split between concern and optimism, it may be helpful to review the full picture for yourself, including the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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