Declared Dividend • Apr 26
First quarter dividend of US$0.005 announced Dividend of US$0.005 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 8th May 2026 Payment date: 15th May 2026 Dividend yield will be 0.8%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is well covered by cash flows (7% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. Reported Earnings • Apr 24
First quarter 2026 earnings released: US$0.17 loss per share (vs US$0.026 loss in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: US$0.17 loss per share (further deteriorated from US$0.026 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: US$187.7m (down 2.5% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: US$6.60m (loss widened US$5.59m from 1Q 2025). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year and the company’s share price has also fallen by 1% per year. New Risk • Apr 23
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 8.9% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 8.9% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Negative equity (-US$86m). Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable next year (US$13m net loss next year). Announcement • Apr 23
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2026, Payable on May 15, 2026 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced the partnership has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The distribution is payable on May 15, 2026, to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on May 8, 2026. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is May 8, 2026. Announcement • Apr 09
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 22, 2026 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results at 4:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Apr 22, 2026 New Risk • Mar 22
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: US$90.5m This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Negative equity (-US$86m). Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (US$9.8m net loss in 2 years). Market cap is less than US$100m (US$90.5m market cap). New Risk • Mar 12
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 2 years. Trailing 12-month net loss: US$14m Forecast net loss in 2 years: US$9.8m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Negative equity (-US$86m). Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (US$9.8m net loss in 2 years). Reported Earnings • Feb 19
Full year 2025 earnings released: US$0.37 loss per share (vs US$0.13 loss in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: US$0.37 loss per share (further deteriorated from US$0.13 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: US$716.1m (up 1.2% from FY 2024). Net loss: US$14.5m (loss widened 185% from FY 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Jan 26
Third quarter dividend of US$0.005 announced Dividend of US$0.005 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 6th February 2026 Payment date: 13th February 2026 Dividend yield will be 0.7%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is well covered by cash flows (2% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. Announcement • Dec 24
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Announces Management Changes Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced the retirement of Johnnie Murry, Senior Vice President, Land Transportation, effective December 31, 2025. Concurrently, the company announced the promotion of John Scott to the role of Vice President, Land Transportation, effective January 1, 2026. Johnnie Murry is stepping down after an extraordinary 49-year career in the industry, including 38 years with the Martin companies. He began his tenure on January 1, 1988, as Plant Manager at Berry Petroleum Company in South Arkansas. He transferred to Martin Transport Inc. in June 1999, assuming responsibility for the entire MTI trucking operation. His extensive 49-year industry career also includes 11 years with Crystal Oil Company. Johnnie Murry has been a valuable member of industry associations, including the American Trucking Association, National Tank Truck Carriers, Texas Trucking Association, and Florida Trucking Association. John Scott, who most recently served as Vice President of Sales and Business Development, will succeed Mr. Murry. Mr. Scott has dedicated 23 years of service to Martin Transport, starting his career in June 2002 as a Backup Dispatcher for Vidor, Texas. He steadily progressed through various roles of increasing responsibility, including Dispatch Supervisor, Dispatch Operations Manager, and Vice President of Operations, a position he held for nine years. In his new role as VP, Land Transportation, he will oversee all aspects of the land transportation division. Mr. Scott is also an active participant in industry organizations, including the Texas Trucking Association and the Florida Trucking Association. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Dec 22
Now 29% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 20% to US$2.50. The fair value is estimated to be US$1.94, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 15% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. New Risk • Dec 16
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: US$98.4m This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Negative equity (-US$83m). Market cap is less than US$100m (US$98.4m market cap). Declared Dividend • Oct 20
Third quarter dividend of US$0.005 announced Dividend of US$0.005 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 7th November 2025 Payment date: 14th November 2025 Dividend yield will be 0.8%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is well covered by cash flows (2% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. Reported Earnings • Oct 18
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: US$0.21 loss per share (vs US$0.083 loss in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: US$0.21 loss per share (further deteriorated from US$0.083 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$168.7m (down 1.3% from 3Q 2024). Net loss: US$8.24m (loss widened 155% from 3Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Oct 16
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 2.3% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.8x net interest cover). Earnings have declined by 2.3% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Negative equity (-US$74m). Announcement • Oct 16
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Declares Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2025, Payable on November 14, 2025 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The distribution is payable on November 14, 2025, to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on November 7, 2025. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is November 7, 2025. Announcement • Oct 07
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 15, 2025 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results After-Market on Oct 15, 2025 New Risk • Sep 30
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 0.8x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.8x net interest cover). Minor Risk Negative equity (-US$74m). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 29
Now 20% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 16% to US$3.43. The fair value is estimated to be US$2.85, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 16% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 12
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 15% to US$3.44. The fair value is estimated to be US$2.85, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 16% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Breakeven Date Change • Jul 23
Forecast to breakeven in 2026 The analyst covering Martin Midstream Partners expects the company to break even for the first time. New forecast suggests losses will reduce by 30% to 2025. The company is expected to make a profit of US$2.19m in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 154% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Declared Dividend • Jul 21
Second quarter dividend of US$0.005 announced Dividend of US$0.005 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 7th August 2025 Payment date: 14th August 2025 Dividend yield will be 0.7%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.5%. Reported Earnings • Jul 17
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: US$0.06 loss per share (vs US$0.095 profit in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: US$0.06 loss per share (down from US$0.095 profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$180.7m (down 2.1% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: US$2.35m (down 164% from profit in 2Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 15% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year. Announcement • Jul 17
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution, Payable on August 14, 2025 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. The distribution is payable on August 14, 2025, to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on August 7, 2025. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is August 7, 2025. Announcement • Jul 02
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 16, 2025 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results After-Market on Jul 16, 2025 Declared Dividend • Apr 20
First quarter dividend of US$0.005 announced Dividend of US$0.005 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 8th May 2025 Payment date: 15th May 2025 Dividend yield will be 0.8%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.5%. Reported Earnings • Apr 17
First quarter 2025 earnings released: US$0.026 loss per share (vs US$0.082 profit in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: US$0.026 loss per share (down from US$0.082 profit in 1Q 2024). Revenue: US$192.5m (up 6.5% from 1Q 2024). Net loss: US$1.02m (down 132% from profit in 1Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 23% per year. Announcement • Apr 17
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Declares Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2025, Payable on May 15, 2025 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2025. The distribution is payable on May 15, 2025, to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on May 8, 2025. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is May 8, 2025. Announcement • Apr 09
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 16, 2025 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results After-Market on Apr 16, 2025 Board Change • Mar 26
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. No experienced directors. 5 highly experienced directors. Independent Director of Martin Midstream GP LLC Jim Collingsworth was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2014. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Jan 29
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 12, 2025 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results After-Market on Feb 12, 2025 Announcement • Jan 22
Martin Midstream Partners Announces Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2024, Payable on February 14, 2025 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced it has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended December 31, 2024. The distribution is payable on February 14, 2025, to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on February 7, 2025. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is February 7, 2025. Announcement • Dec 27
Martin Resource Management Corporation cancelled the acquisition of remaining 84.3% stake in Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (NasdaqGS:MMLP) from a group of shareholder. Martin Resource Management Corporation made a non-binding proposal to acquire remaining 84.3% stake in Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (NasdaqGS:MMLP) from a group of shareholders for approximately $100 million on May 24, 2024. Martin Resource Management Corporation entered into a definitive agreement to acquire remaining 84.3% stake in Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (NasdaqGS:MMLP) from a group of shareholders for approximately $130 million on October 3, 2024. Pursuant to the offer, MRMC would acquire all of the outstanding Common Units of MMLP not already owned by MRMC or its subsidiaries for a cash purchase price of $3.05 per Common Unit. As of October 3, 2024, all of the Martin Midstream's outstanding units will be converted into the right to receive $4.02 in cash. Martin Resource expects to fund the aggregate merger consideration and related transaction costs through its existing cash on hand, cash flow prior to the closing of the transaction, borrowings under existing credit facility, term loan in connection with the closing of the transaction, and from $5,000,000 in loans from certain members of it's management team. The buy-side termination fee equates to $6 million. The sell-side termination fee equates to $2.5 million. The transaction was unanimously approved by both buyer's and target' board. The transaction is subject to the approval of the shareholders of Martin Midstream and Martin Resource Management Corporation. The transaction is subject to the expiration or termination of waiting periods under applicable antitrust law and other regulatory approvals. Nut Tree and Caspian File Definitive Proxy Statement and Send Letter to Unitholders Urging them to Vote "AGAINST" the Merger at MMLP's Special Meeting to be Held on December 30, 2024. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2024. As of December 6, 2024, Nut Tree Capital Management and Caspian Capital opposed the transaction.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC acted as financial advisor to Martin Resource Management Corporation. Houlihan Lokey, Inc. acted as financial advisor to GP Conflict Committee of Martin Midstream. A. Michael Hainsfurther of Munsch Hardt Kopf & Harr, P.C. and Potter Anderson & Corroon LLP acted as legal advisor to Martin Midstream Partners. Preston Bernhisel, Luke Weedon, Steve Marcus, Jason Loden and Michael Bodosky of Baker Botts L.L.P. acted as legal advisor to Martin Resource Management. Houlihan Lokey, Inc. acted as financial advisor to GP Conflict Committee of Martin Midstream. Innisfree M&A Incorporated acted as proxy solicitor to Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC acted as fairness opinion provider to Martin Resource Management Corporation. Stuart Rogers of Alston & Bird acted as legal counsel for Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC received $3 million from Martin Resource for their role as financial advisor. Houlihan Lokey, Inc. received $1.25 million from Martin Midstream for their role as financial advisor. Houlihan Lokey, Inc. received $0.75 million from Martin Midstream for their role as fairness opinion provider. InnisFree received $30,000 from Martin Midstream for their role as Proxy Solicitor. Olshan Frome Wolosky LLP and Latham & Watkins LLP acted as legal counsel to Nut Tree and Caspian.
Martin Resource Management Corporation cancelled the acquisition of remaining 84.3% stake in Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (NasdaqGS:MMLP) from a group of shareholders on December 26, 2024. Announcement • Dec 16
Nut Tree Capital Management Sends Letter to Shareholders of Martin Midstream Partners On December 16, 2024, Nut Tree Capital Management L P, and Caspian Capital L P announced that they have sent a letter to Martin Midstream Partners L P, stating that it believes the Martin Midstream Partners L P’s merger with Martin Resource Management Corporation significantly undervalues the Company’s common units, and will strip value from Company’s common unitholders and unfairly transfer it to the Company’s insiders. Nut Tree Capital stating that remaining a standalone Company is the best path to enhancing value for Company unitholders, the financial analysis the Company’s general partners board relied upon was highly flawed and does not provide an accurate picture of the Company’s future prospects and distributions, Company’s leverage ratio is decreasing and approaching 3.75x, management’s previously stated target level and the threshold under Company’s bond covenants for permitting distributions. In addition, Nut Tree Capital urged the shareholders of the Company to vote against the merger at the Company’s upcoming special meeting of unitholders scheduled to be held on December 30, 2024. Announcement • Dec 11
Nut Tree Capital Management and Caspian Capital Release Presentation and Urge Vote Against MMLP Merge On December 10, 2024, Nut Tree Capital Management L.P and Caspian Capital L.P., which together with their affiliates have combined exposure in Martin Midstream Partners L.P. released an investor presentation highlighting reasons why unitholders should vote “AGAINST” the deeply flawed merger of MMLP with Martin Resource Management Corporation (MRMC). The presentation details why MRMC’s proposed merger significantly undervalues MMLP, the deeply flawed valuation methodologies and financial analysis used to justify the inadequate merger consideration, and the major conflicts of interest that threaten to enrich company insiders at the expense of unitholders. Nut Tree and Caspian argued that remaining as a publicly traded MLP provides a path to superior value for MMLP unitholders, who stand to benefit from imminent and significant future distributions if MMLP remains independent. Nut Tree and Caspian urged unitholders to vote “AGAINST” MMLP’s merger with MRMC and encourage them to view the presentation at www.ProtectMMLPValue.com. Announcement • Dec 10
Nut Tree Capital Issues an Investor Presentation to the Shareholders On December 9, 2024, Nut Tree Capital Management L.P., and Caspian Capital L.P., have filed a definitive proxy statement and accompanying GOLD proxy card with the Securities and Exchange Commission to be used to solicit votes in connection with their opposition to proposals to be presented at a special meeting of common unitholders of Martin Midstream Partners L.P., in connection with the Company’s agreement and plan of merger with Martin Resource Management Corporation and certain of its affiliates. In addition, on December 8, 2024, Nut Tree and Caspian issued an Investor Presentation titled “The Case for Voting AGAINST the MMLP-MRMC Merger. New Risk • Nov 27
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.3% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.4x net interest cover). Minor Risks Negative equity (-US$61m). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.3% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • Oct 27
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.3% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.4x net interest cover). Minor Risks Negative equity (-US$61m). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.3% increase in shares outstanding). Declared Dividend • Oct 20
Third quarter dividend of US$0.005 announced Dividend of US$0.005 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 7th November 2024 Payment date: 14th November 2024 Dividend yield will be 0.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.5%. Reported Earnings • Oct 17
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: US$0.084 loss per share (further deteriorated from US$0.027 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$170.9m (down 3.3% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: US$3.25m (loss widened 214% from 3Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.7% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.3% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year. Announcement • Oct 17
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2024, Payable on November 14, 2024 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended September 30, 2024. The distribution is payable on November 14, 2024, to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on November 7, 2024. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is November 7, 2024. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 15
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 23%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from US$732.4m to US$724.2m. EPS estimate rose from US$0.13 to US$0.16. Net income forecast to grow 5.9% next year vs 6.8% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the US. Consensus price target of US$4.00 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at US$3.98 over the past week. Announcement • Oct 08
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 16, 2024 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results at 4:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Oct 16, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Jul 24
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from US$748.3m to US$727.7m. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.15 per share to US$0.13 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 9.7% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the US . Consensus price target of US$4.00 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 4.1% to US$3.51 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Jul 21
Second quarter dividend of US$0.005 announced Dividend of US$0.005 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 7th August 2024 Payment date: 14th August 2024 Dividend yield will be 0.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.5%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 12%. Cash payout ratio: 4%. Reported Earnings • Jul 18
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.095 (up from US$0.027 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$184.5m (down 5.7% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$3.69m (up 250% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 2.0% (up from 0.5% in 2Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.3% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.6% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 6% per year. Announcement • Jul 18
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Declares Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2024, Payable on August 14, 2024 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended June 30, 2024. The distribution is payable on August 14, 2024 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on August 7, 2024. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is August 7, 2024. Announcement • Jul 11
Caspian Capital, LP and Nut Tree Capital Management, LP entered into a letter of intent to acquire Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (NasdaqGS:MMLP) for $160 million Caspian Capital, LP and Nut Tree Capital Management, LP entered into a letter of intent to acquire Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (NasdaqGS:MMLP) for $160 million on June 21, 2024. The transaction is not subject to any financing condition and would be financed through capital on hand. Announcement • Jul 09
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 17, 2024 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results After-Market on Jul 17, 2024 Announcement • May 26
Martin Resource Management Corporation made a non-binding proposal to acquire remaining 84.3% stake in Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (NasdaqGS:MMLP) from Martin Product Sales LLC, Martin Resource LLC, Senterfitt Holdings Inc., Cross Oil Refining & Marketing, Inc. and others for approximately $100 million. Martin Resource Management Corporation made a non-binding proposal to acquire remaining 84.3% stake in Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (NasdaqGS:MMLP) from Martin Product Sales LLC, Martin Resource LLC, Senterfitt Holdings Inc., Cross Oil Refining & Marketing, Inc. and others for approximately $100 million on May 24, 2024. Pursuant to the offer, MRMC would acquire all of the outstanding Common Units of MMLP not already owned by MRMC or its subsidiaries for a cash purchase price of $3.05 per Common Unit. The proposed transaction is subject to several contingencies, including the approval of the Conflicts Committee and the GP Board, the approval by MMLP’s unitholders, and the satisfaction of any conditions to the consummation of a transaction set forth in any definitive agreement concerning the transaction. Declared Dividend • Apr 22
First quarter dividend of US$0.005 announced Dividend of US$0.005 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 7th May 2024 Payment date: 15th May 2024 Dividend yield will be 0.7%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.5%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 21%. Cash payout ratio: 1%. Reported Earnings • Apr 18
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.082 (up from US$0.13 loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$180.8m (down 26% from 1Q 2023). Net income: US$3.20m (up US$8.16m from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.8% (up from net loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 9.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 33%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.2% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat whereas the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year. Announcement • Apr 18
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution, Payable on May 15, 2024 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2024. The distribution is payable on May 15, 2024 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on May 8, 2024. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is May 7, 2024. Announcement • Apr 05
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 17, 2024 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results After-Market on Apr 17, 2024 Reported Earnings • Feb 15
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: US$0.12 loss per share (improved from US$0.26 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: US$798.0m (down 22% from FY 2022). Net loss: US$4.44m (loss narrowed 56% from FY 2022). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 35%. Revenue is expected to decline by 4.1% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to grow by 1.0%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Declared Dividend • Jan 26
Third quarter dividend of US$0.005 announced Dividend of US$0.005 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 6th February 2024 Payment date: 14th February 2024 Dividend yield will be 0.9%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is well covered by cash flows (0.7243% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. Announcement • Jan 24
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2023, Payable on February 14, 2024 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced it has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The distribution is payable on February 14, 2024 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on February 7, 2024. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is February 6, 2024. Announcement • Jan 18
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 14, 2024 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results After-Market on Feb 14, 2024 Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 17
Key Executive recently bought US$78k worth of stock On the 13th of November, Ruben Martin bought around 31k shares on-market at roughly US$2.49 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger purchase worth US$211k. Ruben has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of US$1.6m worth in shares. Recent Insider Transactions • Oct 25
Key Executive recently bought US$60k worth of stock On the 23rd of October, Randall Tauscher bought around 25k shares on-market at roughly US$2.37 per share. This transaction amounted to 27% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger purchase from another insider worth US$211k. Randall has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of US$100k worth in shares. Reported Earnings • Oct 20
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.027 loss per share (vs US$0.71 loss in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: US$0.027 loss per share (improved from US$0.71 loss in 3Q 2022). Revenue: US$176.7m (down 23% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: US$1.04m (loss narrowed 96% from 3Q 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 28% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 10% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Oct 19
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution for the Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2023, Payable on November 14, 2023 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the third quarter ended September 30, 2023 or $0.020 per common unit annually. The distribution is payable on November 14, 2023, to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on November 7, 2023. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is November 6, 2023. New Risk • Oct 06
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: US$96.5m This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.6x net interest cover). Earnings have declined by 2.5% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Negative equity (-US$64m). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (US$96.5m market cap). Announcement • Sep 29
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 18, 2023 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results After-Market on Oct 18, 2023 Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 15
Key Executive recently bought US$109k worth of stock On the 12th of September, Ruben Martin bought around 36k shares on-market at roughly US$3.00 per share. This transaction amounted to 1.0% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger purchase worth US$731k. Ruben has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of US$1.5m worth in shares. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 06
Key Executive recently bought US$211k worth of stock On the 1st of September, Ruben Martin bought around 71k shares on-market at roughly US$2.97 per share. This transaction amounted to 2.0% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger purchase worth US$731k. Ruben has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of US$1.4m worth in shares. Recent Insider Transactions • Jul 28
Key Executive recently bought US$731k worth of stock On the 25th of July, Ruben Martin bought around 333k shares on-market at roughly US$2.20 per share. This transaction amounted to 10% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Ruben has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of US$1.2m worth in shares. Announcement • Jul 22
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Declares A Quarterly Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2023, Payable on August 14, 2023 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended June 30, 2023. The distribution is payable on August 14, 2023 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on August 7, 2023. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is August 4, 2023. New Risk • Jul 21
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 2.5% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.6x net interest cover). Earnings have declined by 2.5% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Negative equity (-US$64m). Market cap is less than US$100m (US$84.4m market cap). Reported Earnings • Jul 20
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.027 (vs US$0.17 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.027 (down from US$0.17 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$195.6m (down 27% from 2Q 2022). Net income: US$1.06m (down 84% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 0.5% (down from 2.4% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Jul 07
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Jul 19, 2023 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results After-Market on Jul 19, 2023 Reported Earnings • Apr 20
First quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.13 loss per share (vs US$0.29 profit in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: US$0.13 loss per share (down from US$0.29 profit in 1Q 2022). Revenue: US$244.5m (down 12% from 1Q 2022). Net loss: US$4.97m (down 144% from profit in 1Q 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 56% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • Feb 17
Full year 2022 earnings released: US$0.26 loss per share (vs US$0.005 loss in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: US$0.26 loss per share (further deteriorated from US$0.005 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: US$1.02b (up 16% from FY 2021). Net loss: US$10.2m (loss widened US$9.96m from FY 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 38% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Feb 10
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Feb 15, 2023 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q4, 2022 results After-Market on Feb 15, 2023 Announcement • Jan 24
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Announces Quarterly Cash Distribution, Payable on February 14, 2023 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced it has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended December 31, 2022. The distribution is payable on February 14, 2023 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on February 7, 2023. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is February 6, 2023. Board Change • Nov 16
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. No experienced directors. 5 highly experienced directors. Independent Director of Martin Midstream GP LLC Jim Collingsworth was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2014. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 10
Chairman of Martin Midstream GP LLC recently bought US$413k worth of stock On the 8th of November, Ruben Martin bought around 134k shares on-market at roughly US$3.08 per share. This transaction amounted to 4.4% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Ruben has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of US$2.0m worth in shares. Reported Earnings • Nov 04
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: US$0.71 loss per share (vs US$0.17 loss in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: US$0.71 loss per share (further deteriorated from US$0.17 loss in 3Q 2021). Revenue: US$229.3m (up 8.5% from 3Q 2021). Net loss: US$27.6m (loss widened 308% from 3Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 20% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 11% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Oct 19
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. Announces Quarterly Cash Distribution, Payable on November 14, 2022 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced it has declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.005 per unit for the quarter ended September 30, 2022. The distribution is payable on November 14, 2022 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on November 7, 2022. The ex-dividend date for the cash distribution is November 4, 2022. Announcement • Oct 18
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Report Q3, 2022 Results on Nov 02, 2022 Martin Midstream Partners L.P. announced that they will report Q3, 2022 results at 4:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Nov 02, 2022 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 18
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 21% share price decline to US$2.81, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 5.1x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 22% over the past three years. Announcement • Oct 11
Gulf Terminals LLC acquired Stockton Sulfur Terminal from Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (NasdaqGS:MMLP) for $5.3 million. Gulf Terminals LLC acquired Stockton Sulfur Terminal from Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (NasdaqGS:MMLP) for $5.3 million on October 10, 2022. The net proceeds will be used to reduce outstanding borrowings under the Partnership’s revolving credit facility.
Gulf Terminals LLC completed the acquisition of Stockton Sulfur Terminal from Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (NasdaqGS:MMLP) on October 10, 2022. Seeking Alpha • Sep 16
Martin Midstream Partners: Significant Upside With A Successful Debt Refinancing Summary
Martin Midstream Partners increased its guidance for 2022 adjusted EBITDA to a range of $126 million to $135 million.
I estimate its common units could be worth close to $7 per unit if it can deal with its debt maturities and avoid dilution.
Martin's 2025 second-lien notes have traded a bit under par recently, and are its biggest challenge to deal with.
Economic conditions will have a large influence on its ability to deal with its debt maturities.
Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) reported excellent Q2 2022 results, allowing it to boost its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $126 million to $135 million. This was in-line with my previous expectations, where I believed that Martin would exceed the high-end of its prior guidance range of $110 million to $120 million for adjusted EBITDA in 2022.
The strong performance in 2022 plus the significant decline in Martin's unit price since April has changed my view on its common units. I am now bullish on Martin's common units from a valuation perspective, although significant risks remain due to its upcoming debt maturities.
Q2 2022 Performance
Martin delivered very strong results in Q2 2022, with the $38.4 million adjusted EBITDA exceeding the high-end of its guidance range for the quarter by $13.4 million. Martin also boosted its Q3 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance (at midpoint) by $4 million, although it reduced its Q4 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $2.5 million.
Martin's Guidance (mmlp.com)
Much of Martin's strong performance during the first half of 2022 can be attributed to its fertilizer business, which has seen strong margins due to the war in Ukraine. This segment generated $21.8 million in adjusted EBITDA during the first half of 2022. The fertilizer business is seasonal though, and has less impact in the second half of the year, contributing to expectations for lower adjusted EBITDA in the second half of the year. As well, Martin expects its butane margins in Q4 2022 to be lower than its butane margins in Q4 2021.
Overall, I believe that Martin will end up reaching the upper half of its revised $126 million to $135 million adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2022.
Notes On Debt
Hitting the upper half of its revised adjusted EBITDA guidance may allow Martin to reduce its credit facility debt to approximately $110 million by the end of 2022. This would also give it $455 million in net debt, or leverage of approximately 3.4x.
If adjusted EBITDA falls back to more typical levels (such as $115 million) during 2023, Martin may end up with around $420 million in net debt at the end of 2023. This would put its leverage at 3.65x.
Martin has some debt maturity challenges to work through over the next few years. Martin's credit facility matures in August 2023, and it also has note maturities in 2024 and 2025.
Martin's Debt Maturities (mmlp.com)
Of note is its $291 million in 11.5% second-lien notes due 2025. These notes traded around par or above from early 2021 to mid-2022. However, these notes dropped down to around 90 cents on the dollar in mid-July before rebounding to 97 cents on the dollar now. There does not appear to be a company-specific reason for the drop in the price of those bonds, but it may reflect some concern about the potential for a recession.
The second-lien notes will likely be Martin's biggest challenge to deal with due to its relatively large size. Martin's estimated value is higher than its debt (value estimated at 1.6x projected net debt at the end of 2023), but economic conditions will likely influence the success of the debt refinancing.
Notes On Valuation
A 6.0x EV to adjusted EBITDA multiple would make Martin worth $690 million, assuming $115 million per year in adjusted EBITDA in the longer-term. Subtracting $420 million in net debt (year-end 2023 projection) would leave $270 million in value for its common units, or around $6.95 per unit in value based on its current unit count. Reported Earnings • Jul 22
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.17 (vs US$0.17 loss in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.17 (up from US$0.17 loss in 2Q 2021). Revenue: US$267.0m (up 45% from 2Q 2021). Net income: US$6.45m (up US$12.9m from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 2.4% (up from net loss in 2Q 2021). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. 
