Stock Analysis

Despite shrinking by US$65m in the past week, Hallador Energy (NASDAQ:HNRG) shareholders are still up 236% over 5 years

NasdaqCM:HNRG
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It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the Hallador Energy Company (NASDAQ:HNRG) share price down 16% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 228% in that time. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap now. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 34% decline over the last twelve months.

While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

See our latest analysis for Hallador Energy

Hallador Energy isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

For the last half decade, Hallador Energy can boast revenue growth at a rate of 18% per year. Even measured against other revenue-focussed companies, that's a good result. Meanwhile, its share price performance certainly reflects the strong growth, given the share price grew at 27% per year, compound, during the period. So it seems likely that buyers have paid attention to the strong revenue growth. To our minds that makes Hallador Energy worth investigating - it may have its best days ahead.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqCM:HNRG Earnings and Revenue Growth November 5th 2024

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. You can see what analysts are predicting for Hallador Energy in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Hallador Energy's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Hallador Energy shareholders, and that cash payout contributed to why its TSR of 236%, over the last 5 years, is better than the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Hallador Energy had a tough year, with a total loss of 34%, against a market gain of about 32%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 27% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hallador Energy better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Hallador Energy .

Hallador Energy is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.