The Bull Case For Calumet (CLMT) Could Change Following Surprise Q3 Profit Amid Lower Sales - Learn Why

• Calumet, Inc. recently reported third-quarter 2025 results, announcing a swing to net income of US$313.4 million from a net loss a year ago, alongside a modest decline in sales to US$1.08 billion.
• The earnings turnaround occurred despite lower revenue, highlighting improved production efficiency and profitability for the period ended September 30, 2025.
• We'll now explore how Calumet's move back to profitability, despite softer sales, could influence its investment narrative going forward.

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Calumet Investment Narrative Recap

For Calumet shareholders, the core thesis centers on improved operational efficiency and resilience in specialty and renewable fuels, despite commodity pressures and an evolving regulatory backdrop. The third-quarter swing to net income is a positive signal, but near-term results do not materially change the key catalyst, the upcoming MaxSAF 150 project, nor do they mitigate the ongoing risk tied to sustained regulatory and policy support for renewable products, which remains central to margin strength and future earnings visibility.

The recent production results, highlighting an increase to 88,668 barrels per day for the quarter, are particularly relevant, underscoring ongoing operational improvements supporting profitability. This efficiency uptick aligns with Calumet’s focus on margin enhancement, which will be crucial as the company prepares for MaxSAF 150’s launch and seeks to stabilize cash flows through specialty segments and renewables.

However, even with operational gains, investors should be aware that if regulatory support for renewables wavers...

Read the full narrative on Calumet (it's free!)

Calumet's narrative projects $5.1 billion revenue and $40.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 8.0% yearly revenue growth and a $493.1 million increase in earnings from the current level of -$452.8 million.

Uncover how Calumet's forecasts yield a $21.45 fair value, a 12% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members have set fair value estimates for Calumet ranging from US$21.45 to US$52.30, based on three unique forecasts. While opinions vary significantly, the company’s near-term catalysts like the MaxSAF 150 project remain in focus as a driver of future profitability and earnings quality. You can compare these viewpoints and consider a range of outcomes as you look at Calumet’s outlook.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Calumet - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Calumet Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Calumet research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Calumet research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Calumet's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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