Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Brooge Energy Limited (NASDAQ:BROG) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
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What Is Brooge Energy's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2020 Brooge Energy had debt of US$187.0m, up from US$90.2m in one year. On the flip side, it has US$39.4m in cash leading to net debt of about US$147.6m.
How Healthy Is Brooge Energy's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Brooge Energy had liabilities of US$43.8m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$260.2m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$39.4m as well as receivables valued at US$336.8k due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$264.3m.
Brooge Energy has a market capitalization of US$997.2m, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Brooge Energy has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.3 which suggests a meaningful debt load. However, its interest coverage of 2.9 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. Worse, Brooge Energy's EBIT was down 28% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Brooge Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Brooge Energy saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Brooge Energy's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least its level of total liabilities is not so bad. We're quite clear that we consider Brooge Energy to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Brooge Energy is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About NasdaqCM:BROG
Brooge Energy
Through its subsidiaries, provides oil storage and related services at the Port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.
Overvalued minimal.