Federal National Mortgage Association

OTCPK:FNMA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$18.3b

Federal National Mortgage Association Valuation

Is FNMA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FNMA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FNMA ($3.43) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($1.01)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FNMA is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FNMA?

Key metric: As FNMA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for FNMA. This is calculated by dividing FNMA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is FNMA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.6x
SalesUS$30.75b
Market CapUS$18.31b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does FNMA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for FNMA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.8x
FMCC Federal Home Loan Mortgage
0.5x-2.9%US$9.7b
UWMC UWM Holdings
0.3x10.6%US$9.3b
MTG MGIC Investment
5.3x3.6%US$6.3b
ESNT Essent Group
5x5.9%US$5.9b
FNMA Federal National Mortgage Association
0.6x0.1%US$18.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: FNMA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (2.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does FNMA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Diversified Financial Industry?

16 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
RKT Rocket Companies
0.5x23.3%US$27.13b
FMCC Federal Home Loan Mortgage
0.5x-2.9%US$9.66b
UWMC UWM Holdings
0.3x10.6%US$9.32b
NATL NCR Atleos
0.5x2.5%US$2.13b
FNMA 0.6xIndustry Avg. 2.7xNo. of Companies16PS0246810+
16 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: FNMA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the US Diversified Financial industry average (2.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FNMA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FNMA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.6x
Fair PS Ratio4.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: FNMA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FNMA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$3.43
US$1.25
-63.6%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Nov ’25US$1.30
US$1.25
-3.8%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Oct ’25US$1.17
US$1.25
+7.3%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Sep ’25US$1.20
US$1.25
+4.2%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Aug ’25US$1.26
US$1.25
-0.8%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Jul ’25US$1.46
US$1.25
-14.4%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Jan ’25US$1.07
US$0.85
-20.1%
17.0%US$1.00US$0.71n/a2
Dec ’24US$0.74
US$0.85
+14.3%
17.6%US$1.00US$0.70n/a2
Nov ’24US$0.75
US$0.57
-24.5%
73.9%US$1.00US$0US$1.303
Oct ’24US$0.62
US$0.50
-19.2%
81.7%US$1.00US$0US$1.173
Sep ’24US$0.62
US$0.50
-19.2%
81.7%US$1.00US$0US$1.203
Aug ’24US$0.47
US$0.23
-52.1%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.262
Jul ’24US$0.44
US$0.23
-48.9%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.462
Jun ’24US$0.43
US$0.23
-48.3%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.552
May ’24US$0.43
US$0.23
-47.6%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.522
Apr ’24US$0.41
US$0.23
-45.1%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.682
Mar ’24US$0.46
US$0.23
-51.4%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.272
Feb ’24US$0.48
US$0.20
-58.8%
100.0%US$0.40US$0US$1.252

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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