Federal National Mortgage Association

OTCPK:FNMA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$15.3b

Federal National Mortgage Association Valuation

Is FNMA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FNMA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FNMA ($2.65) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($1.01)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FNMA is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FNMA?

Key metric: As FNMA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for FNMA. This is calculated by dividing FNMA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is FNMA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.5x
SalesUS$30.75b
Market CapUS$15.32b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does FNMA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for FNMA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.6x
FMCC Federal Home Loan Mortgage
0.4x-2.9%US$8.5b
UWMC UWM Holdings
0.3x10.1%US$9.2b
MTG MGIC Investment
5x3.2%US$5.9b
ESNT Essent Group
4.7x5.8%US$5.6b
FNMA Federal National Mortgage Association
0.5x0.1%US$15.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: FNMA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (2.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does FNMA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Diversified Financial Industry?

18 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.7x5.0%
FNMA Federal National Mortgage Association
 0.5x0.1%US$15.32b
RKT Rocket Companies
0.4x22.2%US$23.10b
UWMC UWM Holdings
0.3x10.1%US$9.17b
FNMA 0.5xIndustry Avg. 2.7xNo. of Companies18PS0246810+
18 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.7x-4.5%
FNMA Federal National Mortgage Association
 0.5x118.4%US$15.32b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: FNMA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the US Diversified Financial industry average (2.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FNMA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FNMA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.5x
Fair PS Ratio4.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: FNMA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FNMA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$2.65
US$1.25
-52.8%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Dec ’25US$3.13
US$1.25
-60.1%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Nov ’25US$1.30
US$1.25
-3.8%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Oct ’25US$1.17
US$1.25
+7.3%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Sep ’25US$1.20
US$1.25
+4.2%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Aug ’25US$1.26
US$1.25
-0.8%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Jul ’25US$1.46
US$1.25
-14.4%
60.0%US$2.00US$0.50n/a2
Jan ’25US$1.07
US$0.85
-20.1%
17.0%US$1.00US$0.71n/a2
Dec ’24US$0.74
US$0.85
+14.3%
17.6%US$1.00US$0.70US$3.132
Nov ’24US$0.75
US$0.57
-24.5%
73.9%US$1.00US$0US$1.303
Oct ’24US$0.62
US$0.50
-19.2%
81.7%US$1.00US$0US$1.173
Sep ’24US$0.62
US$0.50
-19.2%
81.7%US$1.00US$0US$1.203
Aug ’24US$0.47
US$0.23
-52.1%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.262
Jul ’24US$0.44
US$0.23
-48.9%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.462
Jun ’24US$0.43
US$0.23
-48.3%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.552
May ’24US$0.43
US$0.23
-47.6%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.522
Apr ’24US$0.41
US$0.23
-45.1%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.682
Mar ’24US$0.46
US$0.23
-51.4%
100.0%US$0.45US$0US$1.272
Feb ’24US$0.48
US$0.20
-58.8%
100.0%US$0.40US$0US$1.252

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 06:01
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Federal National Mortgage Association is covered by 12 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullBarclays
Joseph ZidleBofA Global Research
Randolph BinnerB. Riley Securities, Inc.