Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

OTCPK:FMCC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.4b

Federal Home Loan Mortgage Valuation

Is FMCC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FMCC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FMCC ($2.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($28.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FMCC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FMCC?

Key metric: As FMCC is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for FMCC. This is calculated by dividing FMCC's market cap by their current revenue.
What is FMCC's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.4x
SalesUS$23.04b
Market CapUS$9.41b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does FMCC's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for FMCC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.6x
MTG MGIC Investment
5.2x3.6%US$6.3b
ESNT Essent Group
5x5.9%US$6.0b
RDN Radian Group
3.9x3.8%US$5.1b
ACT Enact Holdings
4.4x5.1%US$5.3b
FMCC Federal Home Loan Mortgage
0.4x-2.9%US$9.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: FMCC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (4.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does FMCC's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Diversified Financial Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.8x4.5%
FMCC Federal Home Loan Mortgage
 0.4x-2.9%US$9.41b
RKT Rocket Companies
0.5x23.3%US$28.19b
UWMC UWM Holdings
0.3x10.0%US$9.43b
FMCC 0.4xIndustry Avg. 2.8xNo. of Companies16PS0246810+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.8x-4.3%
FMCC Federal Home Loan Mortgage
 0.4x146.4%US$9.41b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: FMCC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the US Diversified Financial industry average (2.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FMCC's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FMCC PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.4x
Fair PS Ratio3.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: FMCC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FMCC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$2.89
US$1.63
-43.8%
53.8%US$2.50US$0.75n/a2
Nov ’25US$1.22
US$1.63
+33.4%
53.8%US$2.50US$0.75n/a2
Oct ’25US$1.14
US$1.63
+42.5%
53.8%US$2.50US$0.75n/a2
Sep ’25US$1.13
US$1.63
+43.8%
53.8%US$2.50US$0.75n/a2
Aug ’25US$1.16
US$1.63
+40.1%
53.8%US$2.50US$0.75n/a2
Jul ’25US$1.36
US$1.63
+19.5%
53.8%US$2.50US$0.75n/a2
Jan ’25US$0.85
US$0.82
-3.5%
22.0%US$1.00US$0.64n/a2
Jul ’24US$0.43
US$0.20
-53.9%
100.0%US$0.40US$0US$1.362
Jun ’24US$0.43
US$0.20
-53.7%
100.0%US$0.40US$0US$1.452
May ’24US$0.43
US$0.20
-53.1%
100.0%US$0.40US$0US$1.402
Apr ’24US$0.41
US$0.20
-51.0%
100.0%US$0.40US$0US$1.512
Mar ’24US$0.46
US$0.20
-56.1%
100.0%US$0.40US$0US$1.082
Feb ’24US$0.48
US$0.20
-58.3%
100.0%US$0.40US$0US$1.052
Jan ’24US$0.35
US$0.75
+112.3%
33.3%US$1.00US$0.50US$0.852
Dec ’23US$0.44
US$0.75
+70.5%
33.3%US$1.00US$0.50US$0.662
Nov ’23US$0.52
US$1.14
+120.4%
11.9%US$1.27US$1.00US$0.652

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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