Is Block's (SQ) $5 Billion Buyback Expansion Signaling Renewed Confidence in Long-Term Profitability?

• On November 19, 2025, Block announced at its Investor Day an expansion of its stock buyback program by US$5.0 billion, bringing the total repurchase authorization to US$9.0 billion and shared a detailed three-year financial outlook projecting consistent profit growth.
• The multi-billion dollar buyback, paired with management’s profitability targets and integration of new Cash App and AI-driven features, underscores a renewed commitment to shareholder returns and operational efficiency across Block’s core financial platforms.
• We’ll examine how Block’s expanded share repurchase program signals heightened management confidence in sustained profitability and long-term value creation.

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Block Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Block shareholder today, you need to believe in management's ability to drive recurring profit growth from Cash App and Square by expanding user engagement, scaling new AI-driven products, and efficiently allocating capital, including through large-scale buybacks. While the recent US$5.0 billion buyback expansion at Investor Day signals confidence and could help support near-term sentiment, the primary short term catalyst remains user adoption and monetization within Cash App’s ecosystem. However, the biggest risk continues to be rising credit losses or slower engagement if new features fail to sustain momentum, and the impact of the buyback on these risks is not material.

The recent major update to Cash App, with more flexible banking benefits, the Cash App Green program, and broader rollout of Cash App Borrow, most closely connects to the catalysts driving user growth and engagement. By enabling millions of new customers to access banking services and credit without the barriers of direct deposit or traditional credit checks, Block is expanding its addressable market and potentially reinforcing the Cash App flywheel that underlies its growth outlook.

In contrast, investors should be aware that an acceleration in Cash App’s credit products could also mean greater exposure if...

Read the full narrative on Block (it's free!)

Block's projections forecast $32.8 billion in revenue and $2.4 billion in earnings by 2028. This relies on an annual revenue growth rate of 11.3%, but expects an earnings decrease of $0.6 billion from the current $3.0 billion.

Uncover how Block's forecasts yield a $88.51 fair value, a 43% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Sixteen fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community for Block range from US$56.82 to US$104 per share. With user growth and engagement as a key catalyst, these diverse viewpoints reflect both optimism and caution around Block’s evolving business, take a closer look at what other investors are seeing for yourself.

Explore 16 other fair value estimates on Block - why the stock might be worth 8% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Block Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Block research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Block research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Block's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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