PROG Holdings (PRG): Valuation Check After Positive New Coverage From B. Riley Securities

B. Riley Securities just kicked off coverage on PROG Holdings, giving the stock a fresh spotlight and a clearly positive stance that could reshape how investors think about this underfollowed lender.

See our latest analysis for PROG Holdings.

That fresh coverage lands after a choppy stretch, with a recent 1 month share price return of 6.55 percent but a much weaker year to date share price return of minus 29.20 percent. Even so, the 3 year total shareholder return of 79.37 percent still signals longer term momentum.

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With B. Riley setting an upbeat tone and the stock still trading at a sizeable discount to analyst targets and estimated intrinsic value, the key question is simple: is PROG genuinely undervalued or already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 22.4% Undervalued

Compared to the last close at $29.95, the most widely followed narrative pegs fair value meaningfully higher, framing PROG Holdings as mispriced rather than fully rewarded.

Accelerating growth and improving profitability in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) segment through Four Technologies, which has achieved sustained triple-digit GMV and revenue growth and is now profitable, positions PROG Holdings to capitalize on increasing consumer demand for flexible payment options, which is likely to support strong future revenue and margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest top line growth, shrinking margins, and a richer future earnings multiple can still point to upside from here? The full narrative unpacks the delicate balance between earnings power, share count changes, and a higher valuation bar that has to be cleared for this target to hold.

Result: Fair Value of $38.57 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent soft demand in core leasing categories, along with rising BNPL competition, could squeeze margins and undermine the upside case investors are betting on.

Find out about the key risks to this PROG Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own PROG Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer to lean on your own due diligence, you can build a personalized view of PROG in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your PROG Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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