How Investors May Respond To PROG Holdings (PRG) Beating Estimates Despite Major Retail Partner Loss

• PROG Holdings recently reported quarterly results that surpassed analysts’ expectations for both earnings per share and EBITDA, even after facing the loss of a major retail partner earlier this year.
• This outcome highlights the company’s ability to manage through partner concentration challenges, underscoring operational resilience in a period of potential uncertainty.
• We’ll examine how PROG Holdings’ stronger-than-expected results amid retail partner loss could influence the broader investment narrative.

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PROG Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own shares in PROG Holdings, an investor needs confidence in the company’s ability to grow revenue and earnings by expanding digital partnerships, new verticals, and its Buy Now, Pay Later segment, all while diversifying away from heavy retail partner concentration. The company’s latest quarterly beat on EPS and EBITDA despite losing a significant partner alleviates immediate concerns about revenue stability, reducing the near-term risk that partner exits could derail results, but partner concentration remains a key risk. The most relevant recent announcement is PROG Holdings’ upward revision of its full-year earnings guidance in July 2025, which followed a period of retail partner changes. This move aligned closely with the reported resilience shown in the latest quarterly results, giving investors a tangible signal that operating momentum can persist even when headline risks materialize around core partnerships. By contrast, investors should be aware that the loss of key retail partners can still...

Read the full narrative on PROG Holdings (it's free!)

PROG Holdings is expected to reach $2.7 billion in revenue and $141.4 million in earnings by 2028. This assumes a 2.5% annual revenue growth rate and a $73.3 million decrease in earnings from the current level of $214.7 million.

Uncover how PROG Holdings' forecasts yield a $38.57 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four investor fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range widely, from US$38.57 up to US$9,999. Some see upside in expanding digital partnerships, though uncertainty around retail partner concentration means investor expectations will continue to vary.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on PROG Holdings - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Build Your Own PROG Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your PROG Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free PROG Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate PROG Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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