Noah Holdings Limited

NYSE:NOAH Stock Report

Market Cap: US$733.6m

Noah Holdings Valuation

Is NOAH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NOAH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$15.81
Fair Value
30.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
5
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NOAH ($10.99) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($15.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOAH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOAH?

Key metric: As NOAH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NOAH. This is calculated by dividing NOAH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NOAH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.1x
EarningsCN¥582.22m
Market CapCN¥5.34b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOAH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NOAH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.1x
GAMI GAMCO Investors
8.4xn/aUS$565.8m
AC Associated Capital Group
13.1xn/aUS$754.6m
AACT Ares Acquisition Corporation II
25.6xn/aUS$687.5m
VINP Vinci Partners Investments
21.3x2.9%US$642.8m
NOAH Noah Holdings
9.1x15.8%US$733.6m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOAH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the peer average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOAH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Capital Markets Industry?

22 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ADX Adams Diversified Equity Fund
3.8xn/aUS$2.35b
CET Central Securities
4.6xn/aUS$1.34b
GAM General American Investors Company
4.4xn/aUS$1.24b
FRMO FRMO
2.2xn/aUS$457.84m
NOAH 9.1xIndustry Avg. 22.8xNo. of Companies69PE020406080100+
22 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOAH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the US Capital Markets industry average (23x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOAH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOAH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.1x
Fair PE Ratio17.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOAH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NOAH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$10.99
US$13.26
+20.7%
11.8%US$14.89US$10.42n/a5
Jan ’26US$11.71
US$13.26
+13.3%
11.8%US$14.89US$10.42n/a5
Dec ’25US$13.12
US$13.29
+1.3%
11.5%US$15.01US$10.50n/a5
Nov ’25US$12.46
US$13.98
+12.2%
35.3%US$24.27US$9.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$12.49
US$13.44
+7.6%
38.7%US$24.27US$9.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$8.28
US$14.26
+72.2%
36.4%US$24.37US$9.04n/a7
Aug ’25US$7.66
US$17.09
+123.1%
25.3%US$23.90US$9.56n/a7
Jul ’25US$9.75
US$18.08
+85.4%
16.1%US$23.86US$13.00n/a8
Jun ’25US$10.32
US$18.08
+75.2%
16.1%US$23.86US$13.00n/a8
May ’25US$12.14
US$18.93
+55.9%
11.6%US$23.86US$16.47n/a8
Apr ’25US$12.11
US$19.26
+59.1%
11.5%US$23.93US$16.52n/a9
Mar ’25US$11.20
US$19.66
+75.5%
10.0%US$22.67US$17.37n/a9
Feb ’25US$11.79
US$19.89
+68.7%
9.5%US$22.80US$17.47n/a10
Jan ’25US$13.81
US$19.89
+44.0%
9.5%US$22.80US$17.47US$11.7110
Dec ’24US$12.63
US$19.99
+58.3%
9.3%US$22.82US$17.49US$13.1210
Nov ’24US$11.36
US$19.76
+74.0%
10.0%US$22.29US$15.86US$12.4610
Oct ’24US$12.47
US$19.76
+58.5%
10.0%US$22.29US$15.86US$12.4910
Sep ’24US$13.96
US$19.93
+42.8%
10.0%US$22.44US$15.97US$8.2810
Aug ’24US$14.91
US$20.58
+38.0%
10.6%US$23.32US$16.18US$7.669
Jul ’24US$14.08
US$20.03
+42.3%
10.8%US$23.03US$15.98US$9.759
Jun ’24US$15.94
US$20.76
+30.2%
11.4%US$24.37US$16.33US$10.3211
May ’24US$15.62
US$21.93
+40.4%
13.9%US$27.31US$17.43US$12.1411
Apr ’24US$16.55
US$22.17
+34.0%
12.8%US$27.41US$17.54US$12.1111
Mar ’24US$19.47
US$23.26
+19.5%
18.4%US$33.12US$15.88US$11.2011
Feb ’24US$20.30
US$23.26
+14.6%
18.4%US$33.12US$15.88US$11.7911
Jan ’24US$15.50
US$22.32
+44.0%
19.0%US$32.08US$15.38US$13.8110
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts
US$13.26
Fair Value
17.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
5
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/22 13:15
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/22 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Noah Holdings Limited is covered by 15 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Wenzhou HuBOCI Research Ltd.
Yanran XingBOCI Research Ltd.
You FanChina International Capital Corporation Limited