NCR Atleos (NATL): Is the Stock Undervalued After Recent Gains? A Fresh Look at Its Valuation

NCR Atleos (NATL) has seen its stock move around following recent trading sessions, prompting some investors to take a closer look at its latest performance numbers. The company’s year-to-date returns show an impressive 13% gain. Recent momentum is also reflected in annual net income growth.

See our latest analysis for NCR Atleos.

With a year-to-date share price return of 4.52% and a strong 13% total shareholder return over the past year, NCR Atleos has been quietly building momentum. The recent uptick in share price suggests the market is warming to its ongoing growth story, particularly given robust net income gains.

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But with gains in both price and fundamentals, the real question emerges: is NCR Atleos still flying under the radar, or is the market already factoring in all its future upside? Could this be a genuine buying window?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.3% Undervalued

While NCR Atleos recently closed at $35.61, the most widely followed narrative sees fair value closer to $44.67, suggesting significant room for upside. This difference puts the current market price well below the narrative’s outlook and raises the stakes for anyone considering what is next for the stock.

High recurring revenue mix (over 70% in Q2), significant productivity gains through AI-driven service optimization, and a rapidly scaling backlog are driving strong margin expansion and robust free cash flow. These factors underpin announced share buybacks and sustained EPS growth, suggesting current valuation does not reflect enhanced long-term earnings power.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the bold projections powering this valuation? The narrative’s foundation is built on breakout earnings growth and a strategic shift to higher-margin business. Curious what numbers could push shares higher, or what financial assumptions support this aggressive target? Unlock the full story to find out.

Result: Fair Value of $44.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a rapid consumer shift to digital banking and intensifying industry competition could quickly challenge NCR Atleos’ anticipated growth trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this NCR Atleos narrative.

Another View: Market Ratios Suggest Overvaluation

Looking at the price-to-earnings ratio provides a different angle. NCR Atleos is trading at 20.1 times earnings, noticeably above both the US Diversified Financial industry average of 13.2x and its peer group at 8.3x. While the fair ratio is estimated at 20.8x, this elevated level compared to others could signal the stock is priced for perfection, with little room for error if growth stumbles. Are optimistic buyers overlooking valuation risks?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own NCR Atleos Narrative

If you have a different take or want to dig deeper into the details yourself, you can build your own narrative from scratch in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your NCR Atleos research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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