KKR (KKR): Evaluating Valuation After Recent Share Price Decline

KKR (KKR) shares have seen some ups and downs lately, sparking interest among investors looking to understand what is driving the moves. The latest numbers show the stock is off by 14% over the past month.

See our latest analysis for KKR.

Looking beyond this recent slide, it is clear KKR’s share price momentum has faded compared to its stellar multi-year run. The stock is now trading at $124.46, off about 14% over the past month and down 16.6% year-to-date, with the 1-year total shareholder return coming in at -7.8%. Still, those who have held on long term have seen a remarkable 179% total return over three years and 251% over five years. This demonstrates that big-picture results can look very different from the latest headlines.

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With shares now well below recent highs, the big question for investors is whether KKR is trading at an attractive discount or if today’s prices have already factored in all the company’s future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 22.5% Undervalued

Based on the most popular narrative, KKR’s fair value is estimated at $160.59, which is substantially higher than the recent closing price of $124.46. This wide gap is driving investor curiosity about the forward-looking factors supporting this valuation.

“Strong and accelerating fundraising momentum across asset classes, especially with institutional investors and the fast-growing private wealth or retail segment, are expanding fee-paying AUM and supporting double-digit management fee growth. Additional upside comes from new distribution initiatives, such as partnerships with Capital Group and insurance third-party capital. This is likely to positively impact future revenue and management fees.”

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know which financial levers unlocked such a high fair value? Unpack bold profitability shifts, sector tailwinds, and market-defying expectations. What’s the catalyst behind this narrative’s uplifted price target? Only the full narrative reveals the real drivers.

Result: Fair Value of $160.59 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if fundraising momentum weakens or asset quality issues emerge, KKR’s outlook could shift quickly and put both earnings and valuations at risk.

Find out about the key risks to this KKR narrative.

Another View: The Multiples Perspective

While the dominant narrative points to KKR being undervalued, a look at its price-to-earnings ratio tells a different story. KKR trades at 55.5 times earnings, far above both the US Capital Markets industry average of 25.7 and its peers at 40.9. The fair ratio sits even lower at 27.5.

This means the market is demanding a big growth premium for KKR, which could leave less room for upside if expectations are not met. Does this sharp premium reflect future opportunity, or could it signal heightened valuation risk?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own KKR Narrative

Feel free to dive into the numbers yourself and shape a story that fits your perspective. The process to construct your own take is quick and straightforward. Do it your way

A great starting point for your KKR research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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