Does Blackstone’s Hologic Deal and Earnings Shift the Long-Term Story for BX?

• Blackstone Inc. recently reported its third-quarter 2025 results, highlighting distributable earnings per share of US$1.52, a quarterly dividend increase to US$1.29, and new highs in assets under management at US$1.24 trillion, while missing Wall Street expectations for GAAP profit per share and revenue.
• Alongside the earnings, Blackstone and TPG announced an agreement to acquire Hologic in an US$18.3 billion deal, reinforcing Blackstone's ongoing push into healthcare and large-scale private equity transactions.
• We'll explore how Blackstone's strong distributable earnings performance and acquisition of Hologic shape the company's long-term investment narrative.

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Blackstone Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Blackstone shareholder, you typically need to believe in its ability to grow assets under management and seize opportunities in alternative assets, particularly through private equity and credit channels. The recent Hologic deal and strong distributable earnings reinforce the company's push into large-scale healthcare M&A and diversified fee streams, but these moves do not eliminate risks from market volatility and unpredictable realization activity, which remain the most significant near-term catalyst and risk. The news is relevant, but its ultimate impact on these key factors is yet to be determined.

Among Blackstone's announcements, the Q3 distributable earnings of US$1.52 per share, up nearly 50% from last year, stand out as especially important. This result was driven primarily by growth in fee-related revenues, offering investors some reassurance about Blackstone's ability to generate steady cash flow even as headline GAAP earnings and revenue missed analyst expectations. Consistency in this area supports the short-term catalyst of successful deal execution during recoveries in capital markets.

Yet, in contrast, investors should keep in mind the impact that sudden market volatility and shifting credit conditions could have on realization activity and earnings momentum...

Read the full narrative on Blackstone (it's free!)

Blackstone's narrative projects $21.5 billion in revenue and $10.5 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 16.7% yearly revenue growth and a $7.6 billion increase in earnings from $2.9 billion today.

Uncover how Blackstone's forecasts yield a $181.68 fair value, a 18% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

While the baseline view centers on deal flow and market risks, the most optimistic analysts expected Blackstone’s annual revenue to leap to US$21.5 billion by 2028 and earnings to quadruple, betting on a surge in private wealth and global alternatives. These views are far more bullish and remind you that investor opinions and forecasts can differ significantly, especially as new developments may quickly change the outlook.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Blackstone - why the stock might be worth as much as 25% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Blackstone Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Blackstone research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Blackstone research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Blackstone's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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