ARMOUR Residential REIT Valuation
Is ARR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ARR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ARR's fair value for valuation analysis.
Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ARR's fair value for valuation analysis.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARR?
Key metric: As ARR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is ARR's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 8.6x |
| Earnings | US$119.71m |
| Market Cap | US$1.05b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | n/a |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | n/a |
| PEG Ratio | 0.1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does ARR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 11.7x | ||
PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | 9.1x | 8.4% | US$1.1b |
FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust | 15.6x | 24.4% | US$1.1b |
LADR Ladder Capital | 15.4x | 11.9% | US$1.5b |
MFA MFA Financial | 6.5x | -4.9% | US$1.1b |
ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT | 8.6x | 64.4% | US$1.0b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the peer average (11.7x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ARR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?
| 0 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
| 0 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (10.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ARR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 8.6x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 29.8x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.8x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$18.43 | US$20.50 +11.2% | 2.0% | US$21.00 | US$20.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Nov ’25 | US$18.59 | US$20.50 +10.3% | 2.0% | US$21.00 | US$20.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Oct ’25 | US$19.96 | US$20.50 +2.7% | 2.0% | US$21.00 | US$20.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Sep ’25 | US$20.45 | US$20.00 -2.2% | 4.1% | US$21.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Aug ’25 | US$20.26 | US$20.00 -1.3% | 4.1% | US$21.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Jul ’25 | US$19.15 | US$19.67 +2.7% | 2.4% | US$20.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 3 |
| Jun ’25 | US$19.34 | US$19.00 -1.8% | 5.3% | US$20.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 2 |
| May ’25 | US$18.63 | US$19.00 +2.0% | 5.3% | US$20.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 2 |
| Apr ’25 | US$19.62 | US$19.25 -1.9% | 3.9% | US$20.00 | US$18.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Mar ’25 | US$19.73 | US$19.25 -2.4% | 3.9% | US$20.00 | US$18.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Feb ’25 | US$19.57 | US$19.25 -1.6% | 3.9% | US$20.00 | US$18.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Jan ’25 | US$19.32 | US$19.25 -0.4% | 3.9% | US$20.00 | US$18.50 | n/a | 2 |
| Sep ’24 | US$24.65 | US$27.50 +11.6% | 9.1% | US$30.00 | US$25.00 | US$20.45 | 2 |
| Aug ’24 | US$25.65 | US$27.50 +7.2% | 9.1% | US$30.00 | US$25.00 | US$20.26 | 2 |
| Jul ’24 | US$26.65 | US$27.50 +3.2% | 9.1% | US$30.00 | US$25.00 | US$19.15 | 2 |
| Jun ’24 | US$25.60 | US$27.50 +7.4% | 9.1% | US$30.00 | US$25.00 | US$19.34 | 2 |
| May ’24 | US$25.05 | US$27.92 +11.4% | 7.6% | US$30.00 | US$25.00 | US$18.63 | 3 |
| Apr ’24 | US$26.25 | US$27.92 +6.3% | 7.6% | US$30.00 | US$25.00 | US$19.62 | 3 |
| Mar ’24 | US$26.35 | US$27.92 +5.9% | 7.6% | US$30.00 | US$25.00 | US$19.73 | 3 |
| Feb ’24 | US$32.35 | US$27.92 -13.7% | 7.6% | US$30.00 | US$25.00 | US$19.57 | 3 |
| Jan ’24 | US$28.15 | US$29.17 +3.6% | 4.0% | US$30.00 | US$27.50 | US$19.32 | 3 |
| Dec ’23 | US$29.70 | US$29.17 -1.8% | 4.0% | US$30.00 | US$27.50 | US$18.49 | 3 |
| Nov ’23 | US$26.75 | US$29.17 +9.0% | 4.0% | US$30.00 | US$27.50 | US$15.16 | 3 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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VEF
SEK 2.2b
A venture capital firm specializing in early venture, emerging growth and growth capital investments.
VEFF.F
SEK 0.20
7D
0%
1Y
n/a
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US$10.4b
Operates in the secondary mortgage market in the United States.
FMCC
US$2.92
7D
0%
1Y
358.8%
ORIX
JP¥3.8t
Provides diversified financial services in Japan, the United States, Asia, Europe, Australasia, and the Middle East.
IX
JP¥106.82
7D
-0.9%
1Y
17.5%