Apollo Global Management (APO): Valuation in Focus After Morgan Stanley Upgrade and Renewed Growth Expectations

Shares of Apollo Global Management (APO) recently climbed 2% after Morgan Stanley boosted its outlook on the stock. The firm pointed to renewed confidence in the company's fee-related and spread-related earnings potential over the next couple of years.

See our latest analysis for Apollo Global Management.

Momentum in Apollo Global Management has been choppy lately, but the recent uptick followed bigger moves like the acquisition of Bridge Investment in September. This deal should nearly double Apollo’s real estate assets. The company also acquired Argo Infrastructure Partners back in January. While shares are still down 23.6% year-to-date, the company’s five-year total shareholder return of 223.7% shows its long-term track record remains robust, hinting that renewed growth expectations may be helping to stabilize sentiment after a tough stretch.

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With analyst upgrades and strategic moves fueling optimism, the question now stands: are Apollo’s growth prospects undervalued by the market, or is the anticipated rebound already reflected in its share price?

Most Popular Narrative: 19.9% Undervalued

Apollo Global Management’s most followed narrative puts fair value at $158.22, a premium to its last close of $126.76, suggesting the stock could have meaningful upside if forecast assumptions hold. Anticipation is building around expanding shareholder reach, profit margin leaps, and ambitious asset goals.

Apollo's inclusion in the S&P 500 is expected to broaden its shareholder base, leading to potential growth in public market exposure and thus possibly driving future revenue increases. The company's strategic focus on the global industrial renaissance, particularly in areas like energy and infrastructure, is anticipated to significantly boost origination volumes, enhancing both revenue and earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the secret behind this valuation surge? The narrative hinges on expectations for record margin expansion, major strategic pivots, and ambitious asset growth not seen in prior years. Which future metrics are most important to this bullish outlook? Uncover the story that could reshape Apollo’s trajectory.

Result: Fair Value of $158.22 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if internal execution falters or if increased competition intensifies, Apollo’s projected growth and profitability could face setbacks that challenge the current outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Apollo Global Management narrative.

Build Your Own Apollo Global Management Narrative

If a different angle or deeper dive suits you better, consider exploring the numbers on your own and creating a unique take in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Apollo Global Management research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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