Apollo Global Management (APO): Exploring Valuation After Strong Q3 Earnings and Upbeat Growth Outlook

Apollo Global Management (APO) just delivered third-quarter results that topped expectations, with both fee-related and spread-related earnings reaching new highs. Management pointed to growing private asset demand as a key factor boosting origination and future growth.

See our latest analysis for Apollo Global Management.

Even with Apollo Global Management’s upbeat earnings and moves like the majority stake in Atlético de Madrid, the stock hasn’t yet found its stride. Its 1-year total shareholder return stands at -20.7%, though the long-term total return trends are impressive, up 119% over three years and 221% across five. Recent buybacks and sustained dividend payouts show management’s focus on shareholder value, but share price momentum is still searching for traction as investors weigh short-term uncertainty against Apollo’s growth ambitions and ongoing expansion into new sectors.

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With shares still trading well below analyst targets while fundamentals point upward, is Apollo Global Management currently undervalued, or have investors already factored in the company’s robust future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.7% Undervalued

With the current share price at $128.71 and the narrative fair value at $158.22, analysts see meaningful upside ahead for Apollo Global Management. These expectations rest on major strategic and structural changes in the business.

Apollo's inclusion in the S&P 500 is expected to broaden its shareholder base, which could lead to potential growth in public market exposure and possibly drive future revenue increases. The company's strategic focus on the global industrial renaissance, particularly in areas like energy and infrastructure, is anticipated to significantly boost origination volumes, enhancing both revenue and earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what’s baked into this potential? One of the critical drivers is a projected transformation in company scale, with ambitious earnings targets that depend on reshaping their business mix. Wonder which assumptions underpin this head-turning valuation? The answer lies in the full narrative, where bold profit leaps and a higher-than-normal valuation multiple are just the start.

Result: Fair Value of $158.22 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, internal execution challenges and increased competition in the insurance sector could limit Apollo’s ability to deliver on these ambitious growth projections.

Find out about the key risks to this Apollo Global Management narrative.

Build Your Own Apollo Global Management Narrative

If you want to chart your own course or dive deeper into the numbers, you can craft your own Apollo Global Management narrative in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Apollo Global Management research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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