Earnings Update: XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.3% to US$18.00 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of R$4.7b and statutory earnings per share of R$2.47. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from XP's nine analysts is for revenues of R$20.5b in 2026. This reflects a notable 19% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 13% to R$10.83. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$20.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$10.73 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for XP

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$23.41, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values XP at US$26.53 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.95. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 14% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.8% per year. So although XP is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$23.41, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for XP going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the XP Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.