Qifu Technology, Inc.

NasdaqGS:QFIN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.0b

Qifu Technology Valuation

Is QFIN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of QFIN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: QFIN ($35.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($110.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: QFIN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for QFIN?

Key metric: As QFIN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for QFIN. This is calculated by dividing QFIN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is QFIN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.3x
EarningsCN¥5.46b
Market CapCN¥36.41b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does QFIN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for QFIN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.4x
NNI Nelnet
33.3xn/aUS$3.9b
SLM SLM
7.9x-1.1%US$5.1b
BFH Bread Financial Holdings
9x9.5%US$2.9b
FCFS FirstCash Holdings
19.2x17.3%US$4.7b
QFIN Qifu Technology
7.3x7.0%US$5.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: QFIN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the peer average (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does QFIN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Finance Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
YRD Yiren Digital
1.5xn/aUS$515.52m
JFIN Jiayin Group
1.9xn/aUS$360.62m
XYF X Financial
1.7xn/aUS$308.99m
No more companies available in this PE range
QFIN 7.3xIndustry Avg. 12.2xNo. of Companies4PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: QFIN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the US Consumer Finance industry average (12.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is QFIN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

QFIN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.3x
Fair PE Ratio16.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: QFIN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst QFIN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$35.25
US$36.67
+4.0%
19.4%US$46.31US$25.43n/a11
Nov ’25US$32.58
US$32.03
-1.7%
20.6%US$47.13US$24.86n/a11
Oct ’25US$30.86
US$29.67
-3.9%
7.8%US$33.98US$25.22n/a11
Sep ’25US$26.49
US$28.82
+8.8%
6.5%US$31.51US$24.86n/a11
Aug ’25US$19.59
US$25.46
+29.9%
13.0%US$30.16US$15.86n/a12
Jul ’25US$19.70
US$25.58
+29.9%
12.1%US$30.00US$15.78n/a14
Jun ’25US$19.32
US$25.20
+30.4%
14.1%US$29.99US$15.84n/a14
May ’25US$18.57
US$22.70
+22.2%
13.2%US$26.68US$15.84n/a14
Apr ’25US$18.68
US$22.67
+21.4%
13.7%US$26.83US$15.93n/a13
Mar ’25US$15.90
US$23.08
+45.2%
14.0%US$27.25US$16.04n/a13
Feb ’25US$14.36
US$23.08
+60.7%
14.0%US$27.25US$16.04n/a13
Jan ’25US$15.82
US$23.72
+49.9%
11.4%US$27.32US$18.67n/a12
Dec ’24US$15.27
US$23.80
+55.9%
11.8%US$27.22US$18.60n/a11
Nov ’24US$14.67
US$24.81
+69.1%
10.7%US$28.77US$18.23US$32.5811
Oct ’24US$15.36
US$24.81
+61.5%
10.7%US$28.77US$18.23US$30.8611
Sep ’24US$17.70
US$25.21
+42.4%
11.5%US$29.39US$18.34US$26.4912
Aug ’24US$18.68
US$26.72
+43.0%
7.0%US$29.72US$22.27US$19.5912
Jul ’24US$17.28
US$26.27
+52.0%
7.8%US$29.56US$22.15US$19.7011
Jun ’24US$14.66
US$26.96
+83.9%
10.7%US$33.89US$22.52US$19.3211
May ’24US$17.99
US$27.87
+54.9%
8.4%US$33.87US$24.24US$18.5711
Apr ’24US$19.40
US$27.98
+44.2%
8.4%US$34.00US$24.32US$18.6811
Mar ’24US$21.91
US$28.28
+29.1%
11.3%US$33.84US$22.14US$15.9011
Feb ’24US$25.00
US$27.17
+8.7%
15.0%US$34.48US$20.49US$14.3611
Jan ’24US$20.36
US$23.01
+13.0%
15.6%US$33.39US$19.13US$15.8211
Dec ’23US$15.90
US$21.53
+35.4%
17.9%US$32.25US$16.10US$15.2711
Nov ’23US$11.09
US$20.32
+83.2%
26.9%US$35.78US$14.16US$14.6711

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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