PayPal (PYPL): Assessing Valuation After Share Price Slide and Launch of PayPal World

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) has quietly drifted lower this year, even as its underlying business keeps growing revenue and earnings at mid single digit rates. That gap between sentiment and fundamentals is where the opportunity may sit.

See our latest analysis for PayPal Holdings.

The stock tells a different story to the business, with the share price sliding to about $59.81 and posting a year to date share price return of roughly negative 31 percent, alongside a similar one year total shareholder return. This suggests sentiment is still resetting even as fundamentals grind higher.

If you are weighing PayPal against other opportunities in fintech and online platforms, this could be a good moment to scan high growth tech and AI stocks for names showing stronger market momentum.

With expectations muted after years of underperformance, but revenue and earnings still growing, have investors pushed PayPal too far into value territory or is the current share price already factoring in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 43.2% Undervalued

With PayPal last closing at $59.81 and the narrative fair value at $105.25, the gap points to a materially different view of the company.

As I was writing this PayPal actually came out with another service that they announced that makes me even more excited about the company. In Fall of 2025 they are unveiling what they call PayPal World. What this does is it connects major digital wallets and payment systems for customers. It is stated its initial launch will include Mercado Pago, NPCI, PayPal, Tenpay Global and Venmo which in total represents 2 billion users globally. This will allow customers to shop internationally while using their domestic payment system. From the company they state "The technology agnostic platform will support cross border commerce, AI powered shopping, and future payment technologies including stable coins". Along with all of this it will also finally let PayPal and Venmo become fully interoperable. If they are able to exceed with this then it could be huge for them.

Read the complete narrative.

According to Zwfis, the upside case hinges on steady profit expansion, richer margins and a future earnings multiple that implies enduring fintech leadership. Want to see which growth and discount rate assumptions push fair value so far above today’s price, and how long that trajectory is supposed to last?

Result: Fair Value of $105.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent competition, slower Venmo monetisation or disappointing PayPal World adoption could restrain margins and undermine the long term undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this PayPal Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own PayPal Holdings Narrative

If you want to stress test these assumptions or rely on your own due diligence instead, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your PayPal Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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