Northern Trust (NTRS): Assessing Valuation After Singapore Expansion With Avanda Investment Management

Northern Trust (NTRS) is expanding its reach in Asia by building on its longstanding partnership with Avanda Investment Management. The latest move supports Avanda’s mandate from Singapore’s Equity Market Development Programme and highlights Northern Trust’s role in advancing the region’s capital markets.

See our latest analysis for Northern Trust.

Momentum has been building for Northern Trust this year, with the shares logging a year-to-date price return of nearly 25% and a stellar 32% total shareholder return over the past year. Recent updates, including expanded partnerships in Asia, consistent buybacks, and steady dividends, signal ongoing confidence from both management and the market in Northern Trust’s long-term value proposition.

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With Northern Trust shares hovering close to analyst targets after a year of strong gains, investors now face a key question: Is there still room for upside, or has the market already accounted for future growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.6% Undervalued

Northern Trust’s most widely followed narrative sets a fair value of $134.86 per share, modestly above the last close price of $128.67. The narrative weighs recent operational tailwinds, ongoing innovation, and sector dynamics, offering a framework that provides context for a nuanced quote from consensus analysts.

Strategic investment in AI, technology automation, and operational restructuring (centralization, standardization, and automation of core processes) is delivering improved operating leverage, declining headcount, and margin expansion. This approach bends the cost curve and frees resources for growth investments, strengthening both net margins and profitability over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what assumptions drive this valuation edge? The full narrative reveals fresh forecasts, operational shifts, and a bold recalibration of future profitability. Want to see which rapid changes in the business pipeline are powering this premium fair value? Dive in to discover the trends and projections moving the target price.

Result: Fair Value of $134.86 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a surge in private markets or successful AI-driven efficiency gains could challenge current margin forecasts and significantly alter the consensus narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Northern Trust narrative.

Another View: Multiples Suggest Good Value

Taking a fresh look using price-to-earnings ratios, Northern Trust trades at 14.6 times earnings, which is well below both its peer average of 62.4x and the US Capital Markets industry average of 24x. It even matches its fair ratio of 14.6x. This signals limited downside risk and the potential for positive sentiment shifts. But does this make Northern Trust a clear bargain, or is the lower multiple simply reflecting modest future growth prospects?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Northern Trust for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 843 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Northern Trust Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive deeper into the numbers yourself, you can shape your own perspective in just a few minutes. All it takes is Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Northern Trust.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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